Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at cbrfc.webmasters@noaa.gov.Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, January 1, 2008

Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, January 1, 2008


Prepared by Alcorn
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Lake Powell Sub-Basin Summaries

Water Supply forecasts vary over the Green River basin from below normal values in the Upper Basin (points above Flaming Gorge) to near normal conditions in the other regions. This follows water year 2007 where observed flows through out the basin were below to much below average. However, it is still early in the snow accumulation season and there is ample time for conditions to change.



*Median of forecasts within each basin.


December was exceptionally wet across the Upper Colorado Basin, especially in the Gunnison and Dolores basins where several individual precipitation stations received more than 300% of average for the month.



*Median of forecasts within each basin.


January precipitation was much above average with 260% of average. Snow water equivalents were also much above average with 130% across the Basin. Streamflow for December was also much above average.



*Median of forecasts within each basin.




Upper Green Basin Conditions

The Upper Green Basin stands out as having the lowest April through July Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin at this time. Despite December's above average precipitation, snow pack remains below average. After 5 years of below average flows, soils are very dry and influenced a lower forecast. This soil moisture deficit will persist through the forecast season. While climate forecasts indicate the chance for above average precipitation over the northern portion of the basin, this has yet to materialize.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions

Portions of the Yampa Basin are the only regions of the Green where forecasts are above 100% of average. This includes the Little Snake and Elk Rivers.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions

Snow pack in the Uinta Basin varies greatly. While some lower elevation stations are reporting near average snow water equivalent conditions, upper elevation sites remain below average. December's monthly precipitation was above average partly due to very high amounts at low elevations station that do not normally recieve significant precipitation. Meteorological models indicate the western portion of the basin will receive significant precipitation the second weekend of January that will improve the snow pack in the short term.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions

As in the Duchesne Basin, large amounts of precipitation at lower elevation gages pushed the monthly totals near 200 percent of average. Runoff in the Lower Green Basin, points in the Price and San Rafael drainages, is expected to be near average. Some snow sites in the along the Wasatch Plateau are above average as a result of favorable storm direction during events in early December. Slightly to the east, stations report near average conditions. As in the Western Uinta Basin, there exists the potential for significant accumulation with the storms arriving in early January.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Upper Colorado Mainstem Basin Conditions

The 2008 water year started with above average precipitation for October, but then November was just 30% of average. December made up for that with 170% of average precipitation for the month, leaving both the seasonal precipitation and snow water equivalent near normal as of January 1. The April through July streamflow forecasts now range between 85% and 105% of average.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Gunnison Basin Conditions

Precipitation in the Gunnison Basin for October was 86% of average. It was then a dry November with the basin receiving 28% of the monthly average. However, in December the basin received 215% of the monthly average precipitation allowing the seasonal average precipitation for the beginning of January to climb back to 116%. Streamflow forecasts for April through July currently range between 105% and 120% of average.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Dolores Basin Conditions

It was a slow beginning to the 2008 water year in the Dolores Basin. In October the basin saw 66% of the monthly average precipitation and in November just 29%. December more than made up for the light precipitation in October and November with the basin receiving 260% of the December monthly average. This has brought the basin back above average precipitation for the season to 112% of the seasonal average as of January 1. Streamflow forecasts for April through July currently range between 110% and 115% of average.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

San Juan Basin Conditions




* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

















Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Reservoir Monthly Inflow Forecasts



















Monthly Streamflows

















Precipitation Maps