The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 95 percent of average in the Upper Green basin. December precipitation was 50 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 75 percent of average in the basin.
--- Upper Green basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
December streamflow was near 110 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states indicated near average to above average soil moisture conditions last fall prior to snow accumulation.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Green basin.

Forecast Summary:
Seasonal precipitation in the Upper Green is near average as a result of much above average precipitation in October and November. However, snow water equivalent is below average due to much below average monthly precipitation in December. It is also important to note that fall soil moisture conditions were near to above average. As a result, current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 65 and 87 percent of average with a median value of 80 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 70 percent of average in the Yampa/White basin. December precipitation was 30 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 65 percent of average in the basin.
--- Yampa basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
December streamflow was near 120 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states indicated above average to much above average soil moisture conditions last fall prior to snow accumulation.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor in the forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Yampa/White basin.

Forecast Summary:
Seasonal precipitation is below average and snow water equivalent is much below average in the Yampa/White basins as a result of an extremely dry December. It is also important to note that fall soil moisture conditions were above to much above average. As a result, current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 68 and 83 percent of average with a median value of 75 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 90 percent of average in the Duchesne basin. December precipitation was 40 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 65 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
--- Duchesne basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
December streamflow was 120 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states indicated much above average soil moisture conditions last fall prior to snow accumulation.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor in the forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Duchesne basin.

Forecast Summary:
Seasonal precipitation in the Duchesne is near average as a result of much above average precipitation in October and near average precipitation in November. Snow water equivalent is much below average for the majority of the basin due to much below average monthly precipitation in December. However, the snow water equivalent for the eastern portion of the basin is near average resulting in somewhat higher forecasts. It is also important to note that fall soil moisture conditions were much above average. As a result, current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 63 and 104 percent of average with a median value of 80 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 80 percent of average in the Lower Green basin. December precipitation was 40 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 40 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
--- Lower Green basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
December streamflow was near 130 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states indicated near average to above average soil moisture conditions last fall prior to snow accumulation.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor in the forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Lower Green basin.

Forecast Summary:
Seasonal precipitation is below average and snow water equivalent is much below average in the Lower Green due to below average monthly precipitation in November and December. It is also important to note the fall soil moisture conditions were near to above average. As a result, current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 60 and 75 percent of average with a median value of 65 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was near 70 percent of average in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin. The new water year started well with above average precipitation in October; however, November precipitation was below average and then December precipitation was just 35 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was near 60 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
--- Upper Colorado basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
December streamflow was near 110 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were above average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions exist but these do not show a strong correlation with winter precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin, and therefore were not influential in the development of streamflow volume forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Because of the below average November and, especially, December precipitation, as of January 1 both the seasonal precipitation and snow water equivalent are much below average at 70% and 60%, respectively. However, due to a very good runoff season last year and a wet October, above average soil moisture conditions existed in the Upper Colorado mainstem heading into the winter season. Therefore, current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 72 and 86 percent of average with a median value of 80 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 75 percent of average in the Gunnison Basin. Above average precipitation occured in October. Dry conditions and much below average precipitation occurred in November.

December precipitation was also much below average, ranging from 30 percent of average in the East River watershed to 70% of average in the Uncompaghre watershed. The Gunnison basin-wide average for December was 50%.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 65 percent of average in the Gunnison basin.

Gunnison Basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
December streamflow volumes ranged from 85 to 90 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were above average entering the winter season.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions exist but these do not show a strong correlation with winter precipitation in the Gunnison Basin, and therefore were not influential in the development of streamflow volume forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
A wet October was followed by drier condtions in November and December. Seasonal precipitation was near 75 percent of average as of January 1st, with a basin snow water equivalent value near 65 percent of average. High runoff in 2011 and a wet October resulted in above average soil moisture in the Gunnison Basin entering the winter season, impacting the forecasts. April-July streamflow runoff volumes are expected to range between 60 and 80 percent of the 1981-2010 average as of January 1st.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 90 percent of average. Precipitation was above average in October and much below average in November.

December precipitation was near 90% of average.
Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 85 percent of average in the Dolores Basin.

Dolores Basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
Many streamflow gages do not function well during the winter. December streamflow volumes in the Dolores River Basin have been estimated near 60% of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were near to above average entering the winter season.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions exist but does not show a strong correlation with winter precipitation in the Dolores Basin. Therefore, it was not influential in the development of streamflow volume forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Near to above average soil moisture existed in the Dolores River Basin entering the winter season. Above average precipitation occurred in October. Precipitation was much below average in November and near to below average in December. Seasonal precipitation was 90 percent of average on January 1st with snow water equivalent near 85 percent of average. April-July streamflow runoff volumes are expected to range from 70 to 80 percent of the 1981-2010 average.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation is above average due to a wet October. November was dry with precipitation amounts generally less than 70 percent of average.

December precipitation was generally below average across much of the Basin, with the exception of a few high elevation sites that received amounts near or slightly above average.

Snow:
Current snow water equivalent for the entire basin is 85% of average for early January. The Animas basin was near 90% of average on January 1st and the San Juan above Navajo was near 80 percent of average.

Animas River Basin Snow Plot.

San Juan Basin (above Navajo Reservoir) Snow Plot.

Streamflow:
Streamflow volumes for December ranged from 65% of average at the Basin outlet to near 90% of average at higher elevations.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture indicated near to slightly above average soil moisture conditions over the San Juan Basin last fall, prior to the onset of snow accumulation.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions exist and a weak to moderate La Nina episode is anticipated to continue through the winter season. The La Nina climate condition suggests drier than average conditions possible over the San Juan Basin. The La Nina climate condtion was considered when developing the forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Seasonal precipitation is above average due to a wet October. Snowpack conditions are below average due to drier weather in November and December. Soil Moisture was near to slightly above average entering the winter season. La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation is possible over the San Juan Basin through spring. April-July runoff volumes are expected to range from 75 to 95 percent of the 1981-2010 average.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).