The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 125 percent of average in the Upper Green basin. March precipitation was 105 percent of average in the basin as a whole; however, portions of the basin received much above average precipitation such as the headwaters of the mainstem of the Green River which received near 150 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 120 percent of average in the basin.
--- Upper Green basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
March streamflow was near 80 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Green basin.

Forecast Summary:
With the addition of another month of near average precipitation and localized areas with much above average precipitation, the seasonal precipitation and snow water equivalent still remain above average for the Upper Green. As a result of the current conditions, the April through July streamflow volume forecasts increased by approximately 5 to 10 percent from the March 1 forecasts. Current forecasts range between 100 and 140 percent of average with a median value of 114 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 130 percent of average in the Yampa/White basin. March precipitation was 120 percent of average in the basin as a whole.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 130 percent of average in the basin.
--- Yampa basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
March streamflow was near 100 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were near average heading into the winter for the Yampa, Little Snake,and White River basins.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor in the forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Yampa/White basin.

Forecast Summary:
With the addition of above average precipitation in March, the seasonal precipitation and current snow water equivalent remain much above average. It is also important to note that many of the snotel locations have record or near record snow water equivlent for this time of the year. As a result of the current conditions, the April through July streamflow volume forecasts have increased by approximately 10 to 20 percent. Current forecasts range between 128 and 162 percent of average with a median value of 151 percent. Many of these forecast volumes are in the top five historical observed volumes.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 155 percent of average in the Duchesne basin. March precipitation was 85 percent of average the basin as a whole; however, portions of the basin received much below average precipitation such as the headwaters of Ashley Creek, Big Brush, and Whiterocks.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 145 percent of average in the basin.
--- Duchesne basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
March streamflow was 90 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were much below average to below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor in the forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Duchesne basin.

Forecast Summary:
Seasonal precipitation and current snow water equivalent still remain much above average in spite of the below average March precipitation. As a result of the current conditions, the majority of the April through July streamflow volume forecasts did not change from March. However, forecasts for the Duchesne, Strawberry, and Rock Creek rivers have increased by approximately 5 to 10 percent while forecasts for Ashley Creek, Big Brush, and Whiterocks have decreased by approximately 5 to 10 percent as a result of the much below average March precipitation. Current forecasts range between 106 and 193 percent of average with a median value of 153 percent. Many of these forecast volumes are in the top five historical observed volumes.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 160 percent of average in the Lower Green basin. March precipitation was 90 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 120 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
--- Lower Green basin snow water equivalent plot.

Streamflow:
March streamflow was near 80 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were much below to near average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor in the forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Lower Green basin.

Forecast Summary:
With the addition of near average precipitation in March, the seasonal precipitation and current snow water equivalent remain much above average and above average, respectively. As a result of the current conditions, the April through July streamflow volume forecasts are similar to the March forecasts with the exception of Green River at Green River, UT which increase by 11 percent. Current forecasts range between 121 and 151 percent of average with a median value of 141 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation remains much above average in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin at 130 percent of average. March precipitation was near 125 percent of average in the basin as a whole. However, the uppermost headwaters of the basin received near 150% of average precipitation for the month.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was near 130 percent of average in the basin as a whole. This is significant for this time of year as it is also near 130% of the average seasonal peak. Many snotel sites in the upper portion of the basin have snow water equivalent values in the top 5% of their historical records, with a few at record levels.
--- Upper Colorado basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was near 100 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were near to above average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin.

Forecast Summary:
Almost all forecast volumes were raised from last month due to yet another month of above average precipitation combined with the much above average snow water equivalent at this point in the season. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 120 and 150 percent of average with a median value of 135 percent. Many of these forecast volumes are in the top five of historical volumes observed since 1970.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 115 percent of average in the Gunnison basin. March precipitation was 90 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was near 115 percent of average in the Gunnison basin; this is around 110% of the seasonal peak.
--- Gunnison basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was 90 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below to near average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Gunnison basin.

Forecast Summary:
March precipitation throughout the Gunnison basin was average at 90%. Seasonal precipitation for the Gunnison basin dropped a little from last month to 115% of average. April 1st seasonal snow water equivalent for the Gunnison was above average with 115%; whereas the snow water equivalent is 110% of the average seasonal peak. Since there was a slight increases in the seasonal snow water equivalent in the northern portions of the Gunnison basin, the current April through July streamflow volume forecasts remained the same from last month's forecast. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 83 and 133 percent of average with a median value of 110 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 95 percent of average in the entire Dolores basin. March precipitation was just 60 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 85 percent of average in the Dolores basin as a whole; this is about 75% of the seasonal peak.
--- Dolores basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was 60 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were average to slightly below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of La Nina and April through July water volumes in the Dolores basin is small that it did not influence the forecast process.

Forecast Summary:
March precipitation throughout the Dolores basin was much below average at 60%. Seasonal precipitation for the Dolores basin dropped from last month to 95% of average. April 1st seasonal snow water equivalent for the Dolores was average with 85%; whereas the snow water equivalent is 75% of the average seasonal peak. Since the percent of average for both seasonal snow water equivalent and seasonal precipitation decreased from last month, the current April through July streamflow volume forecasts dropped in the Dolores Basin from last month's forecast. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 68 and 71 percent of average, with a median value of 70 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 90 percent of average, which dropped 10 percent from March 1st. March precipitation was 50 percent of average, which was much below average.

Snow:
Current snow water equivalent for the entire basin is 85 percent, which is below average. The Animas basin and above Navajo are similar with 85 percent. All three dropped since March 1st.
--- Animas River Basin Snow Plot.
--- Above Navajo Basin Snow Plot.

Streamflow:
Streamflow for the entire San Juan Basin was much below average for March at 45%. Seasonal streamflow since October continued to be much below average at 60%, due to the much below average fall precipitation.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture as of November 1st, 2010 was average to below average across the entire San Juan Basin.

Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of La Nina and April through July water volumes in the San Juan basin does suggest slightly drier than average December through May precipitation, but it did not influence the April forecast process.

Forecast Summary:
Since March precipitation was below to much below average in the San Juan Basin, the April Water Supply April-July volume dropped 10 percent. The April-July forecast were down compared to last month with a range from 70 to 88 percent of average. The median value of 75 percent.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).