The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December
precipitation amounts rose from last month to near average, 105%, due to the
wet December.
December
precipitation was much above average with
155%.
Snow:
Current snow water equivalent for the entire basin is 95%, which is near average. Both the Animas and above Navajo basin
snow water equivalents were similar with 95% percent of average.
--- Animas River Basin
Snow Plot.
--- Above Navajo Basin
Snow Plot.
Streamflow:
Streamflow for the entire San Juan Basin was much below average in December. Seasonal streamflow since October
was also much below average due to the much below average summer through fall precipitation.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled
soil
moisture as of November 1st, 2009 was below to much below average.
Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of El Nino and April through July water volumes in the San Juan basin is so small that
it did not influence the January forecast process.
Forecast Summary:
Even though seasonal precipitation and current snowpack are near average, soil moisture conditions before
the winter season were below to much below average in the upper basin. This helped drive the San Juan Water Supply
April-July forecast down to 85% of average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).