The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Seasonal October through December precipitation
amounts rose from last month to near average, 105%, due to the
was much above average with
Current snow water equivalent for the entire basin is 95%, which is near average. Both the Animas and above Navajo basin
snow water equivalents were similar with 95% percent of average.
--- Animas River Basin Snow Plot
--- Above Navajo Basin Snow Plot
Streamflow for the entire San Juan Basin was much below average in December. Seasonal streamflow since October
was also much below average due to the much below average summer through fall precipitation.
as of November 1st, 2009 was below to much below average.
The correlation of El Nino and April through July water volumes in the San Juan basin is so small that
it did not influence the January forecast process.
Even though seasonal precipitation and current snowpack are near average, soil moisture conditions before
the winter season were below to much below average in the upper basin. This helped drive the San Juan Water Supply
April-July forecast down to 85% of average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).