-Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow...Soil moisture for most of the upper basins in the San Juan were below average last fall. This was most likely due to limited monsoonal precipitation over the summer months. Observed streamflow for the month of February was mostly below average for the San Juan.

-Snowpack/Precipitation...Snow water equivalents for the entire San Juan Basin on March 1st was 105 percent of average. Precipitation over the San Juan Basin for February was below average with 75 percent. Seasonal precipitation for the San Juan Basin remained at 105 percent of average.

-Short Term Precipitation Forecast...The forecast models through March 10th suggest near average precipitation for the San Juan Basin.

-General Discussion...The CPC guidance has the possibility of below average precipitation for March through May. Due to the below average soil moiture in the upper basin this fall and the combination of current snowpack conditions and the CPC forecast, the median April-July forecast for the San Juan Basin is 100 percent of average. This is a 10 percent drop from last month's forecast due to the decrease in percent of average snowpack.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).