The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through February
precipitation amounts remained near average at
110%.
February
precipitation was near average with 105%.
Snow:
Current snow water equivalent for the entire basin is 105%, which is near average. The Animas basin
snow water equivalent was similar with 100% percent of average, while the above Navajo snow water equivalent dropped slightly from last month and was near
average with 110%.
--- Animas River Basin
Snow Plot.
--- Above Navajo Basin
Snow Plot.
Streamflow:
Streamflow for the entire San Juan Basin was below average in February. Seasonal streamflow since October
was 50% due to the much below average summer through fall precipitation.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled
soil
moisture as of November 1st, 2009 was below to much below average.
Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of El Nino and April through July water volumes in the San Juan basin is so small that
it did not influence the March forecast process.
Forecast Summary:
Current snowpack conditions decreased slightly in February, but remained near average.
This helped drive the San Juan Water Supply April-July forecast down 5% from the previous month to 100% of average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).