The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Seasonal October through February precipitation
amounts remained near average at
was near average with 105%.
Current snow water equivalent for the entire basin is 105%, which is near average. The Animas basin
snow water equivalent was similar with 100% percent of average, while the above Navajo snow water equivalent dropped slightly from last month and was near
average with 110%.
--- Animas River Basin Snow Plot
--- Above Navajo Basin Snow Plot
Streamflow for the entire San Juan Basin was below average in February. Seasonal streamflow since October
was 50% due to the much below average summer through fall precipitation.
as of November 1st, 2009 was below to much below average.
The correlation of El Nino and April through July water volumes in the San Juan basin is so small that
it did not influence the March forecast process.
Current snowpack conditions decreased slightly in February, but remained near average.
This helped drive the San Juan Water Supply April-July forecast down 5% from the previous month to 100% of average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).