The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through April precipitation was 95 percent of average, up 5 percent from last month. April precipitation was 140 percent of average, which was much above average.

Snow:
Current snow water equivalent for the entire basin is 95 percent, which is average. The Animas basin is 100 percent and above Navajo is 90 percent. All three are up from the April 1st percentages.
--- Animas River Basin Snow Plot.
--- Above Navajo Basin Snow Plot.

Streamflow:
Streamflow for the entire San Juan Basin was much below average for April at 60%. Seasonal streamflow since October continued to be much below average at 60%, due to the much below average fall precipitation.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture as of November 1st, 2010 was average to below average across the entire San Juan Basin.

Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of La Nina and April through July water volumes in the San Juan basin does suggest slightly drier than average December through May precipitation, but it did not influence the April forecast process.

Forecast Summary:
The April-July forecast volumes changed little from last month and currently range between 60 and 90 percent of average with a median value of 75%.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).