Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at cbrfc.webmasters@noaa.gov.Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2010
Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2010
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was near 71 percent of average in the upper Bear Basin as a whole.
January precipitation was near 72 percent of average.
Streamflow:
Almost all gages in the Bear were ice affected during January. The Logan River above State Dam however remained ice free and
recorded 90 percent of average.
Snowpack:
February 1st snow water equivalent was 63 percent of average for the Bear Basin as a whole.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation and below average February 1st snow water equivalent values,
the April through July streamflow volume forecasts remain below average at this time.
These forecasts now
range between 49 and 75 percent of average with a median value of 56 percent of average.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was near 70 percent of average in the Weber Basin.
January precipitation was 71 percent of average.
Streamflow:
Almost all gages in the upper Weber were ice affected during January. Rockport Reservoir inflow however remained ice free and
recorded 82 percent of average.
Snowpack:
February 1st snow water equivalent was near 69 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation and below average February 1st snow water equivalent values,
the April through July streamflow volume forecasts remain below average at this time.
These forecasts now range
between 51 and 68 percent of average with a median value of 58 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average February 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow volume forecasts remain below average at this time.
These forecasts now range between 56 and 76 percent of average
with a median value of 61 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation here.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average February 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow volume forecasts remain below average at this time.
These forecasts now range between
45 and 75 percent of average with a median value of 70 percent of average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).