The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
January precipitation was 89 percent of average.
Seasonal, October through January precipitation was 152 percent of average.

Streamflow:
January streamflows for the Little Bear River above Hyrum Reservoir were 98 percent of average.

Snowpack:
Snowpacks in the Bear Basin are 141 percent of average.

Upper Bear River Basin Snow Plot.
Bear River Below Woodruff Narrows Reservoir Snow Plot.
Bear River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture states were near average to above average for the northern Uinta Mountains heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong statistical correlation between El Nino/La Nina conditions and winter precipitation.

Forecast Summary:
Monthly precipitation dropped off significantly this month but seasonal accumulations remain much above average. Current April through July seasonal volume forecasts remain above to much above average and range between 123 and 141 percent of average with a median value of 130 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
January precipitation was 67 percent of average. Seasonal October through January precipitation was 157 percent of average.

Streamflow:
January streamflow above Rockport Reservoir were 49 percent of average. The Weber at Coalville was 61 percent of average.

Snowpack:
Snowpacks are currently 136 percent of average.

Weber River Basin Snow Plot.
Upper Weber River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture states were mostly above normal in the western Uinta Mountains near the headwaters of the Weber heading into winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.

Forecast Summary:
Monthly precipitation dropped off significantly this month but seasonal accumulations remain much above average. Current April through July seasonal volume forecasts remain much above average, and range between 121 and 141 percent of average with a median value of 133 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
January precipitation was 76 percent of average. Seasonal October through January precipitation was 160 percent of average.

Streamflow:
Streamflows for City Creek near Salt Lake City were 100 percent of average.

Snowpack:
Snowpacks are currently 146 percent of average.

Six Creeks River Basin Snow Plot.

Big and Little Cottonwood Canyons Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture states were near average in the Six Creeks Basin heading into winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.

Forecast Summary:
Monthly precipitation dropped off significantly this month but seasonal accumulations remain much above average. Current April through July seasonal volume forecasts remain above average to much above average, and range between 116 and 144 percent of average with a median value of 120 percent of average.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
January precipitation was 54 percent of average. Seasonal October thought January seasonal precipitation is 174 percent of average, a 40 percent drop from January 1st.

Streamflow:
January's calculated inflow to Utah Lake was 75 percent of average . Spanish Fork nr Castilla was 140 percent of average.

Snowpack:
Snowpack are currently 152 percent of average.

Provo River, Utah Lake Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture states were average to above average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation here.

Forecast Summary:
Monthly precipitation dropped off significantly this month but seasonal accumulations remain much above average. Current April through July seasonal volume forecasts remain much above average and range between 98 and 141 percent of average with a median value of 133 percent.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov