The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was 92 percent of average in the upper Bear Basin. January precipitation was 115 percent of average.

Streamflow:
The Bear River at Stewart Dam was 107 percent of average. The Logan River above State Dam recorded 156 percent of average streamflow.

Snowpack:
This years snow remains below average. A wet October and an average November to one of the driest December's on record gave way to an above average January. The current snow water equivalent for the Bear Basin is 73 percent of average. As of water year 2012 the CBRFC has re-calculated all snow stations to reflect the new 30 year average from 1981-2010.


Upper Bear River Basin Snow Plot.
Bear River Below Woodruff Narrows Reservoir Snow Plot.
Bear River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture, click on map to zoom. Modeled soil moisture states indicate above average mositure conditions as of January 1st. This is a contributor to the above average baseflows in the Bear River Basin.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation.

Forecast Summary:
The current Bear River volume forecast range from below average to average. April through July seasonal volume forecast range from 74% to 90% of average with a median volume of 82 percent of average. The above average soil moisture and higher than average current baseflow conditions are resulting in higher forecast than one might expect due to current snow only conditions.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation is 81 percent of average. January precipitation was 121 percent of average.

Streamflow:
The Weber at Oakley gage was 122 percent of average. The inflow to Rockport Reservoir was 123 percent of average.

Snowpack:
This years snow remains below average. A wet October and an average November to one of the driest December's on record gave way to an above average January. Current snow water equivalent are 72 percent of average. This indexed value is slightly higher than other groups but is due to several of the 14 SNOTEL gages that make up the group. One gage, Hardscrabble is 100 percent of average. As of water year 2012 the CBRFC has re-calculated all snow stations to reflect the new 30 year average from 1981-2010. Averages dropped slightly from the 1971-2000 values and this is reflected in the Weber this year as NRCS, which is still using the 71-00 values is 5% lower.

Weber River Basin Snow Plot.
Upper Weber River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture, click on map to zoom. Modeled soil moisture states indicate above average moisture conditions as of January 1st. This is a contributor to the above average baseflows in the Weber River Basin.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation.

Forecast Summary:
April though July volume forecast are currently much below average. April through July seasonal volume forecasts range between 62 and 82 percent of average with a median forecast volume of 67 percent of average. Overall this represents a decrease in the median from last month. The above average soil moisture and higher than average current baseflow conditions are resulting in higher forecast than one might expect due to current snow only conditions.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was near 81 percent of average. January precipitation was 123 percent of average.

Streamflow:
January streamflow for City Creek near Salt Lake City was 112 percent of average.

Snowpack:
This year's snow as of February 1 is below average. A wet October, an average November and one of the driest December's on record gave way to an above average January. Current snow water equivalent are 67 percent of average. As of water year 2012 the CBRFC has re-calculated all snow stations to reflect the new 30 year average from 1981-2010.

Six Creeks Headwaters Basins Snow Plot.

Big and Little Cottonwood Canyons Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture, click on map to zoom. Modeled soil moisture states indicate mostly above average mositure conditions as of January 1st. Although flows are dropping in the Six Creeks basin, above average soil moistures have been influencing baseflows through the fall and January was the first month that they dropped to near average.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation.

Forecast Summary:
Current Six Creeks streamflow volume forecast improved slightly but remain below and much below average. April through July seasonal volume forecasts range between 64 and 82 percent of average with a median forecast of 80 percent of average. The above average soil moisture and higher than average current baseflow conditions are resulting in higher forecast than one might expect due to current snow only conditions.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October thought January seasonal precipitation was 73 percent of average. January precipitation was 102 percent of average.

Streamflow:
Streamflow conditions for the Provo at Woodland were again 113 percent of average, holding steady from last month. Unregulated inflow to Utah Lake was recorded at 133 percent of average.

Snowpack:
This year's snow as of February 1 is below average. A wet October, an average November and one of the driest December's on record gave way to an above average January. Current snow water equivalent are 63 percent of average which represents a 4 percent decrease from last month. As of water year 2012 the CBRFC has re-calculated all snow stations to reflect the new 30 year average from 1981-2010.

Provo River, Utah Lake Drainage Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture, click on map to zoom. Modeled soil moisture states indicate mostly average to above average conditions as of January 1st. This is a contributor to the current baseflows conditions in the Provo and Utah Lake forecast.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation here.

Forecast Summary:
Despite the cool and wet weather during January, there was little overall change in the median April through July volume. April through July seasonal volume forecasts range between 57 and 72 percent of average with a median forecast volume of 67 percent of average. The above average soil moisture and higher than average current baseflow conditions are resulting in higher forecast than one might expect due to current snow only conditions.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov