Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at cbrfc.webmasters@noaa.gov.Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, April 1, 2010
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation
was near 66 percent of average in the upper Bear Basin as a whole.
March precipitation was 61 percent of average.
Streamflow:
Bear River Streamflow at Stewart Dam was 36 percent of average for March. The Logan River above State Dam was 66 percent of average for March.
Snowpack:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 58 percent of average for the Bear Basin as a whole.
Upper Bear River Basin Snow Plot.
Bear River Below Woodruff Narrows Reservoir
Snow Plot.
Bear River Basin Snow Plot.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
April 1st snow water equivalent values are below average. As a
result, the April through July streamflow volume forecasts remain much below average with little change from last months numbers.
These forecasts now
range between 17 and 58 percent of average with a median value of 40 percent of average.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was near 64 percent of
average in the Weber Basin.
March precipitation was 60 percent of average.
Streamflow:
Rockport Reservoir inflow recorded 77 percent of average.
Snowpack:
April 1st snow water equivalent was near 65 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
Due to continued much below average seasonal precipitation and still below average April 1st snow water equivalent values,
the April through July streamflow volume forecasts were lowered to much below average. However,
a week of very wet weather since April 1st may result in a moderate rise in Weber Basin forecasts in subsequent updates.
These forecasts now range
between 24 and 57 percent of average with a median value of 41 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
As of April 1st, seasonal precipitation remains much below normal. As a result, April through July streamflow forecasts remain similar to last month. However,
a week of very wet weather since April 1st may result in a moderate rise in Six Creeks Basin forecasts in subsequent updates.
Currently, the forecasts range between 31 and 68 percent of average
with a median value of 54 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation here.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average April 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow volume forecasts remained much below average.
The forecasts now range between
38 and 64 percent of average with a median value of 50 percent of average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).