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Sevier Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2011

Prepared by Brent Bernard
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah


Sevier Summary

*Median of forecasts within each basin.

Sevier Basin Conditions

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

January precipitation was 10 percent of average. Seasonal October through January precipitation was 227 percent of average.

Streamflow for the Sevier River at Hatch was 118 percent of average for January.

February 1st snow water equivalent was 143 percent of average.

Upper Sevier River Basin Snow Plot.
Sevier River Basin Snow Plot.
Lower Sevier River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled Soil Moisture states were much above average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Generally climate scenarios like El Nino and La Nina have a weak to moderate effect in the Sevier River Basin. However because we a lack of good statistical correlation, these events are not specifically factored into our water supply forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
January precipitation throughout the Sevier Basin was extremely low at 10% of average. Seasonal October through January precipitation in the Sevier Basin remained much above average at 227 percent. Current April through July Seasonal volume forecast range between 137 to 227 percent of average. The median forecast was 187 percent of average.

As a reminder, forecast for the EF Sevier, Sevier at Kingston, Piute Reservoir and Sevier near San Pitch Below Gunnison are all 'Regulated or Observed' flow forecasts rather than 'Natural or Unregulated' forecasts which are corrected for all upstream diversions.

* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Monthly Streamflows

Precipitation Maps

Hydrologist: Brent Bernard