The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was near 80 percent of average in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin. December precipitation was near 90 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was near 80 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
--- Upper Colorado basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
December streamflow was near 85 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were near average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin.

Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation to date and below average January 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow volume forecasts are below average at this time. These forecasts now range between 75 and 100 percent of average, with a median value of 85 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 80 percent of average in the Gunnison basin. December precipitation was 100 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 95 percent of average in the Gunnison basin.
--- Gunnison basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
December streamflow was 80 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Gunnison basin.

Forecast Summary:
Due to below average seasonal precipitation to date and below average modeled soil moisture conditions, the April through July streamflow volume forecasts are below average at this time. These forecasts now range between 77 and 85 percent of average, with a median value of 80 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through December precipitation was 90 percent of average in the Dolores basin. December precipitation was 160 percent of average.

Snow:
January 1st snow water equivalent was 105 percent of average in the Dolores basin.
--- Dolores basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
December streamflow was 70 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below to much below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of El Nino and April through July water volumes in the Dolores basin is so small that it did not influence the January forecast process.

Forecast Summary:
Due to below average modeled soil moisture conditions, the April through July streamflow volume forecasts are below average at this time. These forecasts now range between 78 and 91 percent of average, with a median value of 85 percent.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).