The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was near 135 percent of average in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin. January precipitation was near 85 percent of average in the basin as a whole, however upper portions of the basin, such as the Blue and Eagle river basins and the mainstem headwaters, received near to above average precipitation.

Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent was near 130 percent of average in the basin as a whole; this is 75% of the seasonal peak.
--- Upper Colorado basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
February streamflow was near 95 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were near to above average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin.

Forecast Summary:
January was the first month of this water year with below average precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin; monthly precipitation had been above to much above average each month of the water year prior to January. As of February 1st the percent of average of both the seasonal precipitation and snow water equivalent are lower than they were at the start of last month, but still much above average in the basin as a whole. Most forecast volumes are the same as last month. Decreases at the Colorado River near Cisco and Lake Powell inflow were due to changes in other contributing basins. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 113 and 139 percent of average with a median value of 120 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was 125 percent of average in the Gunnison basin. January precipitation was 55 percent of average.

Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent was near 130 percent of average in the Gunnison basin; this is 75% of the seasonal peak.
--- Gunnison basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
January streamflow was 95 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below to near average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Gunnison basin.

Forecast Summary:
January precipitation throughout the Gunnison basin was much below average at 55%. Seasonal precipitation for the Gunnison basin dropped from last month to 125% of average. February 1st seasonal snow water equivalent for the Gunnison was above average with 130%; whereas the snow water equivalent is 75% of the average seasonal peak. Since the percent of average for both seasonal snow water equivalent and seasonal precipitation decreased from last month, the current April through July streamflow volume forecasts dropped in the Gunnison Basin from last month's forecast. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 93 and 126 percent of average with a median value of 110 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through January precipitation was 110 percent of average in the entire Dolores basin. January precipitation was just 25 percent of average.

Snow:
February 1st snow water equivalent was 100 percent of average in the Dolores basin as a whole; this is 60% of the seasonal peak.
--- Dolores basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
January streamflow was 95 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were average to slightly below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of La Nina and April through July water volumes in the Dolores basin is small that it did not influence the forecast process.

Forecast Summary:
January precipitation throughout the Dolores basin was much below average at 25%. Seasonal precipitation for the Dolores basin dropped from last month to 110% of average. February 1st seasonal snow water equivalent for the Dolores was average with 110%; whereas the snow water equivalent is 60% of the average seasonal peak. Since the percent of average for both seasonal snow water equivalent and seasonal precipitation decreased from last month, the current April through July streamflow volume forecasts dropped in the Dolores Basin from last month's forecast. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 87 and 93 percent of average, with a median value of 90 percent.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).