Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at cbrfc.webmasters@noaa.gov.Upper Colorado Water Supply Outlook, March 1, 2010
Upper Colorado Water Supply Outlook, March 1, 2010
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through February precipitation
was near 85 percent of average in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin.
February precipitation was near 100 percent of average.
Snow:
March 1st snow water equivalent was near 80 percent of average in the basin
as a whole.
--- Upper Colorado basin snow
water equivalent plot
Streamflow:
February streamflow was near 85 percent of average.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil
moisture states were near average heading into the winter.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation
between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin.
Forecast Summary:
Due to near normal February precipitation, many of the April through July streamflow volume forecasts did not change
from last month. However, due to below average seasonal precipitation and snow water equivalent, these forecasts range
between 55 and 118 percent of average with a median value of 75 percent.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through February precipitation was 95 percent of average
in the Gunnison basin. February precipitation was 125 percent of average.
Snow:
March 1st snow water equivalent was 95 percent of average in the Gunnison basin.
--- Gunnison basin snow
water equivalent plot
Streamflow:
February streamflow was 85 percent of average.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil
moisture states were below average heading into the winter.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation
between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Gunnison basin.
Forecast Summary:
February precipitation throughout the Gunnison basin was 125% of average. However, February precipitation in the upper portions of the basin was near to
below average. Therefore, the April through July volume forecast was lowered slightly by 5%. The Gunnison forecasts now range between 70 and 88 percent
of average, with a median value of 80 percent.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through February precipitation was 105 percent of average
in the Dolores basin. February precipitation was 140 percent of average.
Snow:
March 1st snow water equivalent was 105 percent of average in the Dolores basin.
--- Dolores basin snow
water equivalent plot
Streamflow:
February streamflow was 60 percent of average.
Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil
moisture states were below to much below average heading into the winter.
Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of El Nino and April through July water volumes in the Dolores basin is so small that
it did not influence the February forecast process.
Forecast Summary:
February precipitation throughout the Dolores Basin was 140% of average. However February precipitation in the upper portions of the basin was near to
below average. Therefore, the April through July volume forecast was lowered slightly by 5%.
These forecasts now range between 85 and 87 percent of average, with a median value of 85 percent.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).
Reservoir Monthly Inflow Forecasts
Upper Colorado End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)