The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was near 80 percent of average in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin. March precipitation was near 70 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was near 75 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
--- Upper Colorado basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was near 80 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were near average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin.

Forecast Summary:
As a result of below average March precipitation, many of the April through July streamflow volume forecasts decreased by 5-10% from last month. Due to below average seasonal precipitation and snow water equivalent, these forecasts range between 45 and 80 percent of average with a median value of 70 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 95 percent of average in the Gunnison basin. March precipitation was 95 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 95 percent of average in the Gunnison basin.
--- Gunnison basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was 80 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between El Nino conditions and winter precipitation in the Gunnison basin.

Forecast Summary:
March precipitation throughout the Gunnison basin was 95% of average. April 1st snow water equivalent for the Gunnison continued to be near average with 95%. Therefore, the April through July volume forecast did not change much from last month. The Gunnison forecasts now range between 74 and 91 percent of average, with a median value of 80 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 105 percent of average in the entire Dolores basin. March precipitation was 115 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 105 percent of average in the Dolores basin.
--- Dolores basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was 35 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below to much below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of El Nino and April through July water volumes in the Dolores basin is so small that it did not influence the forecast process.

Forecast Summary:
Although March precipitation throughout the Dolores Basin was 115% of average, March precipitation in the upper portions of the Dolores basin was below to much below average. Seasonal October through March precipitation in the upper portions of the Dolores basin was average to below average. Therefore, the April through July volume forecast was lowered slightly by 5%. The Dolores forecasts now range between 81 and 87 percent of average, with a median value of 80 percent.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).