The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation remains much above average in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin at 130 percent of average. March precipitation was near 125 percent of average in the basin as a whole. However, the uppermost headwaters of the basin received near 150% of average precipitation for the month.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was near 130 percent of average in the basin as a whole. This is significant for this time of year as it is also near 130% of the average seasonal peak. Many snotel sites in the upper portion of the basin have snow water equivalent values in the top 5% of their historical records, with a few at record levels.
--- Upper Colorado basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was near 100 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were near to above average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Upper Colorado mainstem basin.

Forecast Summary:
Almost all forecast volumes were raised from last month due to yet another month of above average precipitation combined with the much above average snow water equivalent at this point in the season. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 120 and 150 percent of average with a median value of 135 percent. Many of these forecast volumes are in the top five of historical volumes observed since 1970.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 115 percent of average in the Gunnison basin. March precipitation was 90 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was near 115 percent of average in the Gunnison basin; this is around 110% of the seasonal peak.
--- Gunnison basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was 90 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were below to near average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factor because there is not a strong correlation between La Nina conditions and winter precipitation in the Gunnison basin.

Forecast Summary:
March precipitation throughout the Gunnison basin was average at 90%. Seasonal precipitation for the Gunnison basin dropped a little from last month to 115% of average. April 1st seasonal snow water equivalent for the Gunnison was above average with 115%; whereas the snow water equivalent is 110% of the average seasonal peak. Since there was a slight increases in the seasonal snow water equivalent in the northern portions of the Gunnison basin, the current April through July streamflow volume forecasts remained the same from last month's forecast. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 83 and 133 percent of average with a median value of 110 percent.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October through March precipitation was 95 percent of average in the entire Dolores basin. March precipitation was just 60 percent of average.

Snow:
April 1st snow water equivalent was 85 percent of average in the Dolores basin as a whole; this is about 75% of the seasonal peak.
--- Dolores basin snow water equivalent plot

Streamflow:
March streamflow was 60 percent of average.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states were average to slightly below average heading into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
The correlation of La Nina and April through July water volumes in the Dolores basin is small that it did not influence the forecast process.

Forecast Summary:
March precipitation throughout the Dolores basin was much below average at 60%. Seasonal precipitation for the Dolores basin dropped from last month to 95% of average. April 1st seasonal snow water equivalent for the Dolores was average with 85%; whereas the snow water equivalent is 75% of the average seasonal peak. Since the percent of average for both seasonal snow water equivalent and seasonal precipitation decreased from last month, the current April through July streamflow volume forecasts dropped in the Dolores Basin from last month's forecast. Current April through July streamflow volume forecasts range between 68 and 71 percent of average, with a median value of 70 percent.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).