Model Soil Moisture/Observed Streamflow - Dry weather in the late summer and fall created below average soil moisture conditions in the Virgin River Basin heading into the winter season. Below average streamflow was observed during later fall and early winter. January streamflow rebounded due to some low elevation snow melt and precipitation. February streamflow was near 75 percent of average.

Snowpack/Precipitation - February precipitation was near to above average, ranging from 100 to 120 percent of average in those areas that contribute greatest to the seasonal runoff. Seasonal October through February precipitation in these areas was near 130 percent of average. Snowpack conditions rebounded from some of the melt that occurred in January, to levels above average throughout the basin. As a basin average, snowpack conditions were near 130 percent of average on March 1st.

General Discussion/Forecasts - Forecasts remain unchanged from those issued on February 1st. April through July runoff volumes are expected to be near average in the Virgin River Basin. The 90 day Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast valid for March thorugh May period suggests a better chance for above average temperature and below average precipitation. Drier and warmer than average conditions during this period would most likely result in observed volumes less than current forecasts.

Apr-Jul runoff volumes in the Virgin River Basin are expected to range from near 95 to 100 percent of the average.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).