New 1981-2010 Averages being used this year.
Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at Water Supply Outlook, March 1, 2012

Virgin Water Supply Outlook, March 1, 2012

Prepared by S. Bender
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah


Virgin Summary

*Median of forecasts within each basin.

Virgin Basin Conditions

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Seasonal October-February precipitation was below average at 80 percent of average in the Virgin Headwaters.

February precipitation was 85 percent of average in the Virgin Headwaters.

March 1st snowpack in the Virgin River Basin was 65 percent of average.

Virgin River Basin Snow Plot

February streamflow volume for the Virgin River Basin was 80 percent of average and 95 percent of median.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture content was above average in the Virgin River Headwaters going into the winter.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest slightly decreased chances of precipitation in this area.

Forecast Summary:
Conditions within the basin remain similar to last month, so there are currently no changes to the forecasts of April-July runoff volume. The March 1st snowpack in the Virgin River Basin remains much below average at 65 percent of average. As of March 1st, April-July runoff volumes are forecast to be 42 to 55 percent of average and 68 to 78 percent of the median.

* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Precipitation Maps

Hydrologist: S. Bender