Forecast Note
Forecasts in this publication are now being referenced to the 1971-2000 median value. Median represents the mid point of all the April-July volumes observed during this 30 year period. Half of the observed volumes are above this value, and half below this value. Historically forecasts were represented as a percent of the 1971-2000 average (or mean) value. However, the average values were skewed by a few very wet years and are not considered the best metric on which to reference forecasts.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-March precipitation was near 125 percent of average in the Virgin Headwaters, and ranged from 100 to 155 percent of average basin wide.

March precipitation was near average in the Virgin Headwaters and ranged from 60 to 115 precent of average basin wide.

Streamflow:
March streamflow volumes in the Virgin River basin were near 75 percent of average.

Snow:
Snowpack conditions in the Virgin River Basin ranged from 130 to 200 percent of average at elevations above 8000 feet on April 1st. Above this elevation the water equivalent of the snow pack has increased since March 1st, while melt has occurred at lower elevations..

Virgin River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Below average modeled soil moisture conditions existed entering the winter season. Soil moisture conditions beneath areas of persistent winter snowpack remained dry prior to the onset of snow melt.

Climate Forecasts:
El Nino climate conditions are expected to persist through the spring. The El Nino influence was accounted for in generation of forecasts this season. While El Nino climate conditions suggest increased chances for precipitation during the winter and early spring months, the relationship between El Nino and precipitation is much weaker during the April-July period.

Forecast Summary:
Although the drier soil moisture conditions under the snowpack could act to reduce snow melt runoff, snow melt is still anticipated to push April-July streamflow volumes to much above median levels. Streamflow volume forecasts remain unchanged from those issued last month. April-July runoff volumes are expected to range from 195 to 235 percent of median, which is 125 percent of average.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1971-2000 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov