Green Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2014

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Ashley Nielson
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July182 245 100 310
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July75 98 100 120
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July210 320 90 470
Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr April-July455 655 90 980
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July29 42 81 67
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July445 650 89 1000
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July25 36 67 66
Viva Naughton Res April-July32 47 64 99
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July61 83 93 123
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr April-July19 25 96 34
Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At April-July540 815 83 1420


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July19.9 28 122 41
Steamboat Springs April-July240 330 127 420
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July300 410 128 500
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July62 90 123 114
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July770 1120 120 1420
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July131 181 116 235
Savery, Nr April-July245 360 104 515
Lily, Nr April-July245 375 109 535
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July1010 1480 119 1890
White
Meeker, Nr April-July205 275 98 365
Watson, Nr April-July215 290 104 400


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July11.2 16 76 26
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July23 37 74 62
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July7.8 11 59 18
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July57 77 71 100
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res April-July56 69 93 102
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July3.4 5 68 7.8
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July63 79 90 119
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Res April-July7.8 12.1 61 21
Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr April-July15.6 26 37 62
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr April-July38 57 51 108
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July122 154 79 215
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr April-July47 61 92 85
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July43 54 89 75
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July26 40 74 68
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July42 65 88 96
Duchesne
Myton April-July152 215 65 375
Randlett, Nr April-July163 230 60 440


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July4 8.2 53 13.4
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July14.2 20 67 32
Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr April-July18.5 27 66 44
Green
Green River, Ut April-July2060 2780 94 4300
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July4.9 7.8 59 15.7
Power Plant, Blo April-July19.6 27 68 43
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr April-July34 44 79 71
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July21 30 79 48
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July9.5 14.3 72 25

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr 162.7 108 47 165.8 110 150.1 344.8
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Res, Farson, Nr 9.2 56 24 7.2 43 16.6 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 13.1 114 44 6.9 59 11.5 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr 6.8 122 49 4.6 82 5.6 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At 2847.2 93 76 2980.7 98 3050.5 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr 829.9 126 75 897.0 136 659.9 1105.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr 148.0 107 90 135.5 98 138.8 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res 9.9 115 32 9.5 110 8.6 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr 23.2 95 64 9.5 39 24.4 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Res, Vernal, Nr 10.7 59 42 13.9 77 18.0 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr -9999.0 -99 -99 28.0 94 29.9 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr 30.1 77 48 33.6 86 39.3 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 17.0 89 54 19.4 101 19.2 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4107.8 99 73 4311.4 103 4142.5 5634.6

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Ashley Nielson