Green Water Supply Outlook, June 1, 2013

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Ashley Nielson
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July124 156 64 186
June-July68 100 60 130
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July53 62 63 76
June-July30 39 51 53
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July128 160 45 225
June-July68 100 39 165
Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr April-July280 350 48 445
June-July123 190 40 290
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July18.9 28 54 33
June-July4.2 13 38 18.6
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July255 325 45 445
June-July100 172 36 290
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July21 25 46 32
June-July5 9.1 35 15.5
Viva Naughton Res April-July28 33 45 40
June-July4 9.4 30 16.5
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July54 66 74 75
June-July24 36 61 45
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr April-July16.2 19.9 77 24
June-July6.5 10.2 57 14.5
Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At April-July335 440 45 615
June-July130 235 39 410


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July17.5 20 87 22
June-July3.4 6.2 72 8.2
Steamboat Springs April-July170 205 79 235
June-July43 80 67 108
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July210 240 75 275
June-July78 106 67 142
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July36 39 53 44
June-July0.31 3.3 32 8.5
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July500 620 66 735
June-July113 230 59 345
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July90 102 65 120
June-July20 32 48 50
Savery, Nr April-July135 151 44 187
June-July30 46 34 82
Lily, Nr April-July128 150 43 178
June-July30 52 39 80
White
Meeker, Nr April-July140 170 61 205
June-July50 80 56 115
Watson, Nr April-July144 172 61 205
June-July55 83 60 116


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July8.5 9.9 47 13.3
June-July2.3 3.7 41 7.1
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July18 24 48 32
June-July4.6 10 42 18.7
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July8.5 10.7 58 13.1
June-July2.1 4.3 46 6.7
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July55 66 61 80
June-July23 34 57 48
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res April-July44 50 68 61
June-July21 27 57 38
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July3.4 3.9 53 5.6
June-July1.9 2.4 49 4.1
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July53 59 67 71
June-July28 34 61 46
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Res April-July6 7.5 38 10.8
June-July0.62 2.1 28 5.4
Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr April-July11.1 12.7 23 19.2
June-July0.8 2.4 15.6 8.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr April-July27 30 27 43
June-July5 8 21 21
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July111 126 65 149
June-July52 67 58 90
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr April-July42 47 71 55
June-July21 26 60 34
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July36 42 69 53
June-July19.2 25 61 36
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July20 30 56 41
June-July8.7 19 56 29
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July30 44 59 61
June-July13.5 28 56 45
Duchesne
Myton April-July126 152 46 200
June-July35 61 35 111
Randlett, Nr April-July131 160 42 230
June-July37 66 31 134


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July2.3 2.8 18.1 3.6
June-July0.15 0.7 21 1.5
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July11.9 14 47 17.1
June-July1.3 3.4 35 6.5
Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr April-July15.3 17.6 43 23
June-July1.5 3.8 28 8.8
Green
Green River, Ut April-July1180 1480 50 1860
June-July380 680 44 1060
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July5.1 5.9 44 7.7
June-July0.51 1.3 27 3.1
Power Plant, Blo April-July14.6 19.4 49 24
June-July6.3 11.1 56 15.2
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr April-July24 29 52 37
June-July9 14.2 44 22
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July15.1 19.2 51 24
June-July6.1 10.2 49 15.5
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July7.1 8 40 10.1
June-July3.8 4.7 40 6.8

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr 184.6 113 54 227.3 139 164.0 344.8
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Res, Farson, Nr 22.8 77 59 34.4 117 29.4 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 19.3 78 65 28.1 113 24.9 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr 11.0 97 79 13.0 115 11.3 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At 3002.6 98 80 3107.7 101 3071.5 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr 904.9 115 82 986.9 125 789.3 1105.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr 158.1 102 96 152.0 98 154.8 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res 18.8 120 60 20.6 131 15.7 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr 23.9 83 65 27.2 95 28.6 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Res, Vernal, Nr 17.5 75 68 23.5 100 23.4 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr 35.2 73 54 50.8 105 48.5 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr 39.0 75 62 55.8 108 51.6 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 21.7 91 69 25.6 108 23.8 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4459.3 101 78 4752.7 107 4436.9 5700.4

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Ashley Nielson