Green Water Supply Outlook, June 1, 2014

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Ashley Nielson
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July310 340 139 380
June-July205 235 140 275
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July109 119 121 136
June-July80 90 118 107
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July410 455 128 520
June-July270 315 124 380
Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr April-July1010 1130 156 1250
June-July640 755 159 880
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July43 49 94 57
June-July26 32 94 40
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July985 1130 155 1260
June-July630 775 161 905
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July67 72 133 81
June-July23 28 108 37
Viva Naughton Res April-July82 91 123 101
June-July25 34 110 44
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July86 94 106 106
June-July40 48 81 60
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr April-July25 28 108 32
June-July12 15 84 19
Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At April-July1190 1320 135 1480
June-July730 860 143 1020


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July31 34 148 40
June-July6 9 105 14.5
Steamboat Springs April-July350 375 144 410
June-July150 176 148 210
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July420 455 142 490
June-July200 235 148 270
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July70 77 105 83
June-July6 13 125 19
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July1080 1200 128 1280
June-July440 560 144 640
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July200 210 135 230
June-July70 80 121 100
Savery, Nr April-July335 375 109 410
June-July105 146 108 180
Lily, Nr April-July330 375 109 420
June-July125 172 128 215
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July1400 1550 125 1700
June-July550 700 140 855
White
Meeker, Nr April-July250 275 98 305
June-July105 130 90 160
Watson, Nr April-July255 280 100 315
June-July110 135 97 170


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July8.1 9.6 46 12.1
June-July2 3.5 39 6
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July15.9 19 38 24
June-July4.1 7.2 30 12
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July13.4 14.6 78 16.4
June-July5 6.2 67 8
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July82 92 85 103
June-July35 45 75 56
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res April-July62 69 93 80
June-July30 37 79 48
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July4.8 5.5 75 6.3
June-July2.3 3 61 3.8
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July68 75 85 85
June-July35 42 75 52
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Res April-July8.9 10.6 53 12.7
June-July2 3.7 50 5.8
Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr April-July32 36 51 41
June-July4.5 8 33 13
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr April-July44 55 49 61
June-July9 20 53 26
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July153 166 86 191
June-July72 85 74 110
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr April-July52 58 88 67
June-July29 35 81 44
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July43 47 77 54
June-July24 28 68 35
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July19.4 23 43 30
June-July9 13 38 20
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July42 48 65 58
June-July26 32 64 42
Duchesne
Myton April-July198 220 67 265
June-July82 102 59 150
Randlett, Nr April-July197 220 57 265
June-July80 103 49 150


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July5.4 6.3 41 7.4
June-July0.8 1.7 50 2.8
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July15.3 16.8 56 19.4
June-July3.5 5 52 7.6
Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr April-July19.9 22 54 26
June-July4 6.2 46 9.6
Green
Green River, Ut April-July2870 3220 109 3670
June-July1500 1850 119 2300
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July8 9.5 71 11
June-July1 2.5 52 4
Power Plant, Blo April-July28 31 78 35
June-July12 15 76 19
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr April-July45 50 89 56
June-July17 22 69 28
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July33 36 95 40
June-July13 16.6 79 20
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July14.2 15.8 79 18.2
June-July7 8.6 74 11

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr 186.4 114 54 184.6 113 164.0 344.8
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Res, Farson, Nr 24.3 83 63 22.8 77 29.4 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 30.4 122 102 18.9 76 24.9 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr 14.2 126 102 11.0 97 11.3 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At 3185.0 104 85 3002.6 98 3071.5 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr 870.5 122 79 904.9 126 716.0 1105.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr 158.3 102 96 158.3 102 154.8 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res 20.4 130 65 18.7 119 15.7 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr 30.5 107 83 23.9 83 28.6 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Res, Vernal, Nr 13.6 58 53 17.5 75 23.4 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr 26.1 54 40 35.2 73 48.5 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr 51.4 100 82 39.0 75 51.6 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 23.1 97 74 21.7 91 23.8 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4634.3 106 81 4459.0 102 4363.6 5700.4

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Ashley Nielson