Green Water Supply Outlook, June 1, 2015

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Ashley Nielson
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July190 220 90 255
June-July115 145 86 180
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July66 81 83 98
June-July46 61 80 78
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July220 260 73 305
June-July133 175 69 220
Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr April-July590 675 93 810
June-July280 365 77 500
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July36 42 81 50
June-July17 23 68 31
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July595 680 93 815
June-July290 375 78 510
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July50 53 98 60
June-July13.1 16 62 23
Viva Naughton Res April-July58 62 84 70
June-July14.5 18.3 59 27
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July59 68 76 81
June-July30 39 66 52
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr April-July20 22 85 25
June-July11.6 13.3 75 16.5
Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At April-July805 910 93 1060
June-July360 465 78 615


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July24 25 109 29
June-July4.5 5.8 67 9.4
Steamboat Springs April-July235 255 98 290
June-July70 90 76 125
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July230 260 81 295
June-July100 130 82 165
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July46 47 64 49
June-July4.2 5.5 53 7.5
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July670 710 76 775
June-July220 260 67 325
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July109 117 75 131
June-July29 37 56 51
Dixon, Nr April-July161 181 52 210
June-July45 65 48 95
Lily, Nr April-July193 220 64 250
June-July45 70 52 100
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July885 945 76 1030
June-July280 340 68 420
White
Meeker, Nr April-July220 235 84 255
June-July85 100 69 123
Watson, Nr April-July205 230 82 255
June-July80 105 76 130


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July11.3 13 62 14.2
June-July3 4.7 52 5.9
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July28 30 60 34
June-July12.5 14.5 60 18.5
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July11 12 65 13.7
June-July3.5 4.5 48 6.2
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July64 70 65 77
June-July30 36 60 43
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res April-July52 59 80 66
June-July28 35 74 42
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July4.2 4.8 66 5.5
June-July2.4 3 61 3.7
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July59 66 75 72
June-July34 41 73 47
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Res April-July8.9 9.3 47 10.1
June-July2.3 2.7 36 3.5
Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr April-July21 23 32 25
June-July6.5 8.5 35 10.5
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr April-July34 37 33 41
June-July11.5 14 37 18
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July124 135 70 146
June-July65 76 66 87
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr April-July43 49 74 54
June-July26 32 74 37
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July43 47 77 53
June-July30 34 83 40
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July37 41 76 47
June-July24 28 82 34
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July51 57 77 64
June-July36 42 84 49
Duchesne
Myton April-July155 171 52 194
June-July72 88 51 111
Randlett, Nr April-July166 185 48 220
June-July78 97 46 130


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July2 2.1 13.5 2.4
June-July0.6 0.7 21 0.96
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July9.7 9.9 33 10.6
June-July2.5 2.7 28 3.4
Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr April-July10.8 11.9 29 12.8
June-July2 3.1 23 4
Green
Green River, Ut April-July2040 2200 74 2680
June-July860 1020 66 1500
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July5.2 5.5 41 6.3
June-July0.9 1.2 25 2
Power Plant, Blo April-July18.3 20 50 23
June-July8.5 10.7 54 13.5
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr April-July30 32 57 34
June-July13 15.1 47 17
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July24 26 68 29
June-July13 14.5 69 17.8
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July11.4 12.2 61 13.3
June-July6.2 7 60 8.1

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr 297.8 182 86 186.4 114 164.0 344.8
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Res, Farson, Nr 35.0 119 91 24.3 83 29.4 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 30.3 122 102 30.4 122 24.9 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr 14.0 124 101 14.2 126 11.3 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At 3197.7 104 85 3185.0 104 3071.5 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr 849.9 119 77 870.6 122 716.0 1105.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr 163.6 106 99 158.3 102 154.8 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res 21.0 134 67 19.8 126 15.7 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr 32.0 112 88 30.5 107 28.6 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Res, Vernal, Nr 18.3 78 71 13.6 58 23.4 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr 18.5 38 28 26.1 54 48.5 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr 48.8 95 78 51.4 100 51.6 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 20.9 88 66 23.1 97 23.8 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4747.7 109 83 4633.9 106 4363.6 5700.4

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Ashley Nielson