San Juan Water Supply Outlook, May 1, 2014

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Greg Smith
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

San Juan Summary






*Median of forecasts within each basin.


San Juan Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


San Juan Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		10%
Exceedance
Volume
San Juan
Pagosa Springs April-July118 138 64 158
May-July80 100 56 120
Carracas, Nr April-July205 230 61 265
May-July150 175 58 210
Navajo Res, Archuleta, Nr April-July370 460 63 540
May-July245 335 59 415
Farmington April-July655 775 70 910
May-July480 600 68 735
Bluff, Nr April-July595 735 67 885
May-July440 580 68 730
Rio Blanco
Pagosa Springs, Nr, Blanco Dam, Blo April-July25 31 57 37
May-July17 23 51 29
Navajo
Chromo, Nr, Oso Div Dam, Blo April-July29 37 57 44
May-July22 30 56 37
Piedra
Arboles, Nr April-July122 139 66 154
May-July78 95 62 110
Los Pinos
Vallecito Res, Bayfield, Nr April-July134 167 86 205
May-July106 139 81 177
Animas
Durango April-July325 380 92 460
May-July275 330 90 410
Florida
Lemon Res, Durango, Nr April-July32 42 76 53
May-July24 35 71 45
La Plata
Hesperus April-July12 13.5 59 17
May-July8.5 10 55 13.5
Mancos
Mancos, Nr April-July11.2 14.2 46 18.2
May-July10 13 54 17

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

San Juan End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Los Pinos
Vallecito Res, Bayfield, Nr 105.8 143 84 62.7 85 74.0 125.4
untitled San Juan
Navajo Res, Archuleta, Nr 1052.7 77 62 928.4 68 1361.0 1696.0
untitled Florida
Lemon Res, Durango, Nr 24.7 103 62 11.2 46 24.1 39.8
untitled
TOTAL 1183.2 81 64 1002.3 69 1459.0 1861.2

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Greg Smith