Upper Colorado Water Supply Outlook, May 1, 2008
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Contents
Upper Colorado Summary
The Upper Colorado mainstem basin fared pretty well in terms of precipitation
during April with near normal amounts, but the Gunnison and Dolores basins
received below average amounts for the month. The percent of average snow
water equivalent dropped 5% in the Upper Colorado basin, 10% in the Gunnison
River basin, and 30% in the Dolores River basin. As a result, median forecasts
for the April through July runoff volumes remained steady in the Upper Colorado
basin, but dropped 10% and 15% in the Gunnison and Dolores basins, respectively.

*Median of forecasts within each basin.
Upper Colorado Mainstem Basin Conditions
In contrast to the majority of western Colorado, which was mostly dry, the Upper Colorado mainstem
basin as a whole received about 90% of the average April precipitation. This
near normal precipitation combined with slightly cooler than normal temperatures
for most of the month kept the high elevation snowpack largely intact, so that
the May 1st snow water equivalent was still 120% of average; this is just a 5%
decrease from April 1st. The Roaring Fork basin snow water equivalent remains
the highest in the basin at close to 150% of average, essentially unchanged
from April 1st. Most changes to the forecasts were less than 5% from last
months values. The April through July streamflow forecasts now range between
100% and 140% of average, with the exception of Mill Creek which is forecast
at 74% of average.

* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.
Gunnison Basin Conditions
In the Gunnison Basin, precipitation was below average at 75% for the month of April. However, an April with below normal temperatures allowed snow water equivalent to remain above average at 120% of the daily average as of May 1st.
Some snow melt has started in most areas of the basin which is reflected in the streamflow being 130% of average. However, in the Taylor River basin, melt has been minimal and streamflows were below average for April. April through July volume forecasts throughout the basin either remained the same as the April 1st forecast or were lowered around 5%.

* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.
Dolores Basin Conditions
Precipitation was below average at 65% for the month of April in the Dolores Basin. As of May 1st, snow water equivialent is at 100% of the daily average.
Snow began to melt rapildly in the middle of April. This shows in monthly streamflow for the Dolores Basin being 145% of average. Inflow into McPhee Reservoir was well above average for the month of April at 178%. April through July volume forecasts in the Dolores Basin decreased by 15%.

* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).
Precipitation Maps


Hydrologist: Brenda Alcorn, John Lhotak