Upper Colorado Water Supply Outlook, May 1, 2008

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Brenda Alcorn, John Lhotak
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Upper Colorado Summary

The Upper Colorado mainstem basin fared pretty well in terms of precipitation during April with near normal amounts, but the Gunnison and Dolores basins received below average amounts for the month. The percent of average snow water equivalent dropped 5% in the Upper Colorado basin, 10% in the Gunnison River basin, and 30% in the Dolores River basin. As a result, median forecasts for the April through July runoff volumes remained steady in the Upper Colorado basin, but dropped 10% and 15% in the Gunnison and Dolores basins, respectively.



*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Colorado Mainstem Basin Conditions

In contrast to the majority of western Colorado, which was mostly dry, the Upper Colorado mainstem basin as a whole received about 90% of the average April precipitation. This near normal precipitation combined with slightly cooler than normal temperatures for most of the month kept the high elevation snowpack largely intact, so that the May 1st snow water equivalent was still 120% of average; this is just a 5% decrease from April 1st. The Roaring Fork basin snow water equivalent remains the highest in the basin at close to 150% of average, essentially unchanged from April 1st. Most changes to the forecasts were less than 5% from last months values. The April through July streamflow forecasts now range between 100% and 140% of average, with the exception of Mill Creek which is forecast at 74% of average.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Gunnison Basin Conditions

In the Gunnison Basin, precipitation was below average at 75% for the month of April. However, an April with below normal temperatures allowed snow water equivalent to remain above average at 120% of the daily average as of May 1st.
Some snow melt has started in most areas of the basin which is reflected in the streamflow being 130% of average. However, in the Taylor River basin, melt has been minimal and streamflows were below average for April. April through July volume forecasts throughout the basin either remained the same as the April 1st forecast or were lowered around 5%.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Dolores Basin Conditions

Precipitation was below average at 65% for the month of April in the Dolores Basin. As of May 1st, snow water equivialent is at 100% of the daily average.
Snow began to melt rapildly in the middle of April. This shows in monthly streamflow for the Dolores Basin being 145% of average. Inflow into McPhee Reservoir was well above average for the month of April at 178%. April through July volume forecasts in the Dolores Basin decreased by 15%.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.







Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).


Precipitation Maps








Hydrologist: Brenda Alcorn, John Lhotak