Green Water Supply Outlook, January 1, 2017

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Ashley Nielson
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July210 255 305 124 340 405
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July87 97 110 112 121 138
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July305 370 430 121 495 590
Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr April-July590 770 930 128 1080 1370
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July41 54 62 119 70 89
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July595 785 945 129 1120 1420
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July36 45 59 109 72 93
Viva Naughton Res April-July48 63 82 111 107 141
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July60 83 94 106 112 134
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr April-July19.2 23 27 104 32 39
Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At April-July780 1020 1230 126 1440 1990


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July14.5 15.9 18.5 80 20 27
Steamboat Springs April-July131 167 225 87 260 315
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July200 250 325 102 370 410
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July36 55 75 103 86 95
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July475 645 875 94 1000 1200
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July71 100 145 93 170 194
Dixon, Nr April-July141 205 300 87 350 445
Lily, Nr April-July138 215 315 91 360 510
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July610 860 1180 95 1340 1600
White
Meeker, Nr April-July158 188 240 86 265 325
Watson, Nr April-July168 205 255 91 290 340


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July14.6 20 22 105 27 32
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July34 48 52 104 62 77
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July12.2 17.2 19.7 106 24 31
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July77 96 115 106 135 158
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res April-July61 72 84 114 100 122
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July5.5 7.1 8.2 112 10.1 12.6
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July72 86 99 113 120 150
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Res April-July13.4 17.8 21 105 25 33
Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr April-July35 56 69 97 88 119
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr April-July71 104 125 112 168 215
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July147 178 210 108 245 300
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr April-July53 64 75 114 87 106
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July50 62 70 115 79 100
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July41 53 62 115 71 89
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July54 70 85 115 100 123
Duchesne
Myton April-July210 295 365 111 455 585
Randlett, Nr April-July240 345 440 114 550 730


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July7.8 16.3 20 129 25 28
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July23 28 34 113 42 48
Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr April-July29 37 46 112 57 67
Green
Green River, Ut April-July2000 2560 3130 106 3520 4700
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July9.2 12.2 15.6 117 19.2 23
Power Plant, Blo April-July32 43 49 123 63 71
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr April-July39 49 61 109 69 85
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July27 34 40 105 46 58
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July13.7 18.8 21 106 27 34

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr 203.2 116 59 197.5 113 175.3 344.8
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Res, Farson, Nr 22.0 142 57 19.4 125 15.5 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 9.7 94 33 5.6 54 10.3 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr 6.0 104 43 5.7 99 5.8 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At 3130.4 101 83 3225.3 104 3094.9 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr 766.8 116 69 792.0 120 659.7 1105.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr 142.1 106 86 144.7 108 134.1 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res 14.5 139 46 10.8 103 10.4 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr 22.3 100 61 19.9 89 22.4 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Res, Vernal, Nr 20.8 119 81 15.6 89 17.5 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr 12.3 43 19 9.8 34 28.5 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr 29.8 75 48 37.1 94 39.7 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 15.9 81 51 17.3 88 19.6 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4395.9 104 77 4500.7 106 4233.8 5700.4

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Ashley Nielson