New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year.
Green Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022

Green Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Brenda Alcorn
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July165 205 240 94 265 330
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July60 68 80 79 95 105
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July148 195 250 70 315 365
Green
Fontenelle Reservoir, Fontenelle, Nr April-July370 500 615 84 740 930
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July21 29 36 72 44 56
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July360 490 605 82 775 950
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July25 30 36 69 54 62
Viva Naughton Reservoir April-July30 37 48 66 75 93
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July57 65 77 88 93 110
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Reservoir, Robertson,nr April-July19 22 25 89 30 34
Green
Flaming Gorge Reservoir April-July450 600 750 78 1050 1250


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July20 23 26 96 30 36
Steamboat Springs April-July175 200 230 88 255 320
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July275 300 355 108 380 445
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July58 70 80 113 90 110
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July650 750 890 97 950 1200
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July105 120 145 94 170 195
Dixon, Nr April-July195 235 280 85 340 410
Lily, Nr April-July190 240 285 88 370 435
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July840 1000 1170 98 1300 1600
White
Meeker, Nr April-July175 200 225 87 245 365
Watson, Nr April-July170 200 230 85 250 390


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July8.5 11.5 14.5 74 18 23
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July20 25 36 78 42 60
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July10 12.5 14.5 85 17 25
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July71 80 92 89 105 130
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Reservoir April-July55 64 74 103 81 112
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July4.5 5.5 6.5 89 8 10
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July68 77 87 100 98 135
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Reservoir April-July12.5 16 18.5 105 23 31
Strawberry
Strawberry Reservoir, Soldier Springs April-July27 35 45 75 62 82
Starvation Reservoir, Duchesne, Nr April-July55 70 85 90 120 170
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July135 160 175 93 200 260
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Reservoir, Mtn Home, Nr April-July45 53 60 94 67 92
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July42 55 62 103 67 91
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July33 38 52 102 56 77
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July44 55 72 100 79 110
Duchesne
Myton April-July170 220 265 87 340 500
Randlett, Nr April-July180 235 290 83 360 570


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July6 8.5 10.5 83 14 20
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July18 21 24 92 29 39
Price
Scofield Reservoir, Scofield, Nr April-July22 27 31 91 38 53
Green
Green River, Ut April-July1800 2100 2450 87 2900 3900
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July8 9.5 11.5 102 14 18
Power Plant, Blo April-July30 34 41 103 46 57
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Reservoir, Orangeville, Nr April-July33 40 44 86 49 64
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July21 25 30 86 34 47
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July10.5 12 13.5 74 16 24

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Reservoir, Fontenelle, Nr 180.2 109 54 153.5 93 165.5 334.0
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Reservoir, Nr Farson 6.5 38 17 7.9 47 16.9 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 10.5 92 35 4.2 37 11.4 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Reservoir, Robertson,nr 5.5 100 39 3.7 68 5.5 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Reservoir 2900.9 94 77 3151.0 102 3081.2 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Strawberry Reservoir, Soldier Springs 829.2 102 75 920.0 113 811.3 1105.9
Starvation Reservoir, Duchesne, Nr 133.7 96 81 143.9 103 139.7 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Reservoir 13.3 131 42 9.1 90 10.1 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Reservoir, Mtn Home, Nr 23.8 120 65 12.1 61 19.9 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Reservoir, Vernal, Nr 10.6 60 41 15.8 89 17.7 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Reservoir, Scofield, Nr 17.8 70 27 32.8 128 25.6 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Reservoir, Orangeville, Nr 21.5 56 34 38.4 100 38.5 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 11.1 63 35 19.3 109 17.6 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4164.5 95 73 4511.7 103 4360.8 5689.6

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1991-2020 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Brenda Alcorn