Green Water Supply Outlook, March 1, 2016

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Ashley Nielson
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July142 170 190 78 215 245
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July53 60 77 79 83 99
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July140 175 220 62 265 335
Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr April-July315 410 515 71 600 725
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July21 29 31 60 38 51
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July305 415 510 70 600 730
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July20 24 33 61 42 51
Viva Naughton Res April-July25 31 42 57 53 70
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July51 61 70 79 84 100
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr April-July15.2 18.9 22 85 25 29
Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At April-July395 520 660 67 825 1070


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July16 18.5 21 91 23 30
Steamboat Springs April-July175 215 240 92 290 330
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July210 255 290 91 320 380
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July35 49 55 75 65 83
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July520 630 770 82 905 1050
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July76 95 120 77 133 165
Dixon, Nr April-July149 200 255 74 285 370
Lily, Nr April-July150 200 265 77 310 390
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July640 800 1030 83 1120 1370
White
Meeker, Nr April-July191 220 245 88 270 355
Watson, Nr April-July200 235 260 93 285 395


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July9.1 12.3 14.4 69 16.2 23
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July20 27 34 68 38 56
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July7.1 8.8 10 54 12.8 15
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July54 63 71 66 84 91
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res April-July43 51 60 81 69 74
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July3.3 4.5 5.2 71 6 7.2
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July50 60 71 81 81 87
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Res April-July5.3 8.5 11.5 58 13.6 16.3
Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr April-July18 25 32 45 40 58
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr April-July39 52 60 54 72 96
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July101 121 140 72 162 175
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr April-July29 41 50 76 55 64
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July30 43 48 79 53 64
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July24 31 39 72 44 57
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July32 47 55 74 61 78
Duchesne
Myton April-July110 163 195 59 235 280
Randlett, Nr April-July120 182 215 56 260 325


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July5 9.1 11 71 13.8 18.7
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July13.5 16.7 21 70 24 30
Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr April-July17.2 22 27 66 31 40
Green
Green River, Ut April-July1500 1750 2150 73 2730 2850
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July5.1 6.1 7.5 56 9.3 14.6
Power Plant, Blo April-July19 21 27 68 30 42
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr April-July23 30 36 64 42 57
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July16.6 23 28 74 30 41
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July9.6 12 14 70 16.6 22

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr 148.6 116 43 209.8 164 127.6 344.8
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Res, Farson, Nr 20.4 135 53 22.5 149 15.1 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 8.1 66 27 23.9 194 12.3 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr 6.2 116 45 9.9 184 5.4 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At 3127.5 104 83 3206.6 106 3015.6 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr 792.3 120 72 835.9 127 660.2 1105.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr 150.9 104 91 154.3 107 144.5 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res 11.2 146 36 14.4 188 7.6 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr 22.8 86 62 31.9 120 26.6 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Res, Vernal, Nr 16.7 90 65 11.9 64 18.5 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr 11.9 39 18 13.3 43 30.6 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr 36.8 92 59 41.1 102 40.2 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 16.8 89 53 18.5 99 18.8 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4370.1 106 77 4594.0 111 4123.0 5700.4

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Ashley Nielson