Green Water Supply Outlook, June 1, 2016

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Ashley Nielson
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July172 180 192 78 199 215
June-July105 113 125 74 132 150
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July71 77 85 87 90 97
June-July50 56 64 84 69 76
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July245 255 285 80 310 335
June-July155 167 195 76 220 245
Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr April-July575 600 650 90 695 745
June-July300 325 375 79 420 470
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July41 45 49 94 51 56
June-July24 28 32 94 34 39
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July610 640 675 92 730 795
June-July310 340 375 78 430 495
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July50 52 54 100 57 62
June-July12.1 13.9 16.2 62 18.4 24
Viva Naughton Res April-July63 65 68 92 70 78
June-July14.1 16 18.5 60 21 29
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July93 99 103 116 106 114
June-July61 67 71 120 74 82
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr April-July29 32 33 127 36 37
June-July18.5 21 22 124 25 26
Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At April-July945 990 1060 108 1130 1190
June-July445 490 560 93 625 685


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July26 28 28 122 28 29
June-July7 8.1 8.2 95 8.7 9.2
Steamboat Springs April-July310 335 340 131 345 365
June-July130 155 160 134 165 185
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July390 420 425 133 430 455
June-July180 210 215 135 220 245
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July90 93 93 127 94 97
June-July11.8 14.2 14.9 143 16 18.1
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July1100 1160 1180 126 1190 1270
June-July440 500 520 133 530 605
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July183 197 205 131 205 220
June-July70 84 90 136 94 106
Dixon, Nr April-July390 425 435 126 445 470
June-July135 170 180 133 192 215
Lily, Nr April-July410 450 460 133 470 495
June-July145 186 196 146 205 230
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July1500 1620 1650 133 1670 1770
June-July580 695 725 145 745 850
White
Meeker, Nr April-July245 255 260 93 260 280
June-July115 127 130 90 133 151
Watson, Nr April-July260 275 280 100 285 305
June-July120 137 140 101 143 163


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July22 23 24 114 25 27
June-July7.8 8.6 9.5 106 10.1 12.9
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July43 46 47 94 48 51
June-July19.2 22 23 96 24 27
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July14.9 15.3 15.9 85 16.4 17
June-July6.5 6.9 7.5 81 8 8.6
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July85 89 91 84 95 99
June-July45 49 51 85 55 59
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res April-July63 69 71 96 72 78
June-July41 47 49 104 50 56
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July5.9 6.2 6.6 90 6.8 7.1
June-July3.8 4.1 4.5 92 4.7 5
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July75 81 84 95 85 92
June-July49 55 58 104 59 66
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Res April-July8.5 9.3 9.3 47 9.3 10.6
June-July2.7 3.5 3.5 47 3.5 4.8
Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr April-July30 32 32 45 32 34
June-July6 7.5 7.5 31 7.5 10
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr April-July43 47 47 42 47 50
June-July10.7 14.3 14.3 38 14.7 17
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July151 160 173 89 179 190
June-July85 94 107 93 113 124
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr April-July50 56 58 88 60 64
June-July33 39 41 95 43 47
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July53 56 59 97 60 67
June-July37 40 43 105 44 51
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July45 49 50 93 52 55
June-July31 35 36 106 38 41
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July62 65 69 93 71 77
June-July46 49 53 106 55 61
Duchesne
Myton April-July193 220 225 68 240 255
June-July96 121 130 75 141 159
Randlett, Nr April-July200 245 255 66 270 295
June-July96 139 150 71 164 187


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July5.6 5.6 5.9 38 6 6.2
June-July0.75 0.8 1.1 32 1.1 1.4
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July16.9 17.5 17.7 59 18 19.6
June-July3.9 4.5 4.7 48 5 6.6
Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr April-July20 21 21 51 21 23
June-July3.8 4.3 4.5 34 4.9 6.7
Green
Green River, Ut April-July2890 3060 3190 108 3320 3640
June-July1300 1470 1600 103 1730 2050
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July7.8 8.8 9 68 9.3 10.5
June-July1.8 2.8 3 63 3.3 4.5
Power Plant, Blo April-July28 29 29 73 31 33
June-July15.4 15.8 16.5 83 17.7 20
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr April-July33 34 35 63 36 39
June-July17.5 18.3 20 63 21 24
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July26 27 28 74 29 32
June-July14 15.4 16 76 16.6 20
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July11.1 11.4 12.1 61 12.4 13.7
June-July6 6.3 7 60 7.3 8.6

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr 251.9 154 73 297.8 182 164.0 344.8
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Res, Farson, Nr 34.0 116 89 35.0 119 29.4 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 25.2 101 84 30.3 122 24.9 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Res, Robertson,nr 11.9 106 86 14.0 124 11.3 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Res, Flaming Gorge Dam, At 3427.2 112 91 3197.7 104 3071.5 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Solider Springs,nr 829.0 116 75 849.8 119 716.0 1105.9
Starvation Res, Duchesne, Nr 163.9 106 99 163.5 106 154.8 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Res 6.7 42 21 20.9 133 15.7 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home, Nr 23.6 83 65 32.0 112 28.6 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Res, Vernal, Nr 25.7 110 100 18.3 78 23.4 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Res, Scofield, Nr 25.8 53 39 18.5 38 48.5 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Res, Orangeville, Nr 42.8 83 69 48.8 95 51.6 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 21.8 91 69 20.9 88 23.8 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4889.4 112 86 4747.3 109 4363.6 5700.4

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Ashley Nielson