New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year.
Green Water Supply Outlook, June 1, 2022

Green Water Supply Outlook, June 1, 2022

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Brenda Alcorn
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Green Summary




*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Yampa/White Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Duchesne Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Lower Green Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Upper Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Green
Daniel, Nr, Warren Bridge, At April-July155 164 180 71 210 230
June-July115 124 140 80 170 190
Pine Ck
Fremont Lk, Abv April-July53 57 65 64 72 79
June-July40 44 52 67 59 66
New Fork
Big Piney, Nr April-July139 148 175 49 210 240
June-July100 109 136 53 173 200
Green
Fontenelle Reservoir, Fontenelle, Nr April-July315 375 435 59 490 550
June-July200 260 320 67 375 435
Big Sandy
Farson, Nr April-July23 25 28 56 35 40
June-July13 14.9 18.4 58 25 30
Green
Green River, Wy, Nr April-July300 365 425 58 480 545
June-July190 255 315 66 370 435
Hams Fork
Frontier, Nr, Pole Ck, Blo April-July16.4 18.5 21 40 25 30
June-July5 7.1 9.6 40 13.6 18.6
Viva Naughton Reservoir April-July28 31 35 48 39 45
June-July4 7 10.7 36 14.7 21
Blacks Fork
Robertson, Nr April-July55 59 65 74 72 79
June-July25 29 35 63 42 49
Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Reservoir, Robertson,nr April-July17 18 20 71 22 25
June-July6.8 7.8 9.8 55 11.9 15
Green
Flaming Gorge Reservoir April-July380 455 520 54 610 705
June-July225 300 365 61 455 550


Yampa/White Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Yampa
Stagecoach Rsvr, Abv April-July7.8 9.6 11.3 42 12.5 14.3
June-July2.5 4.3 6 46 7.2 9
Steamboat Springs April-July162 182 200 77 215 240
June-July46 66 84 71 99 124
Elk
Milner, Nr April-July265 285 300 91 330 350
June-July98 119 133 81 163 183
Elkhead Ck
Long Gulch, Abv, Hayden, Nr April-July36 38 39 55 41 44
June-July1 2.1 3.6 32 5.6 8.6
Yampa
Maybell, Nr April-July550 635 685 74 730 790
June-July144 230 280 74 325 385
Little Snake
Slater, Nr April-July100 108 115 74 130 140
June-July18 26 33 51 48 58
Dixon, Nr April-July174 189 205 62 230 250
June-July25 40 56 44 81 101
Lily, Nr April-July170 184 200 62 225 250
June-July25 39 55 44 80 105
Yampa
Deerlodge Park April-July700 795 880 74 950 1030
June-July155 250 335 70 405 485
White
Meeker, Nr April-July143 168 185 71 205 220
June-July45 70 87 64 107 122
Watson, Nr April-July136 159 175 65 200 220
June-July45 68 84 60 109 129


Duchesne Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Big Brush Ck
Vernal, Nr, Red Fleet Res, Abv April-July9.8 10.3 11 56 12 13.5
June-July2 2.5 3.2 39 4.2 5.7
Ashley Ck
Vernal, Nr April-July24 26 28 61 32 35
June-July6.5 8.5 10.4 45 14.4 17.4
West Fork Duchesne
Vat Diversion, Blo April-July10.1 11 12 71 13 14
June-July1.5 2.4 3.4 40 4.4 5.4
Duchesne
Tabiona, Nr April-July61 70 75 73 82 88
June-July15 24 29 52 36 42
Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Reservoir April-July51 54 60 83 65 70
June-July14 16.8 23 50 28 33
South Fork Rock Ck
Docs Div, Blo April-July3.6 4 4.7 64 5.3 6
June-July1.3 1.7 2.4 50 3 3.7
Rock Ck
Mountain Home, Nr April-July58 62 70 80 75 80
June-July17 21 29 53 34 39
Currant Ck
Currant Ck Reservoir April-July6.1 7 8 45 9 10
June-July0 0.86 1.9 27 2.9 3.9
Strawberry
Strawberry Reservoir, Soldier Springs April-July26 28 30 50 33 38
June-July0 2.5 4.5 23 7.5 12.5
Starvation Reservoir, Duchesne, Nr April-July33 34 35 37 40 53
June-July0 0.62 1.6 6 6.6 19.6
Duchesne
Duchesne, Nr, Knight Div, Abv April-July117 129 140 74 149 162
June-July32 44 55 50 64 77
Lake Fork
Moon Lake Reservoir, Mtn Home, Nr April-July36 39 45 70 48 52
June-July12 15.3 21 51 24 28
Yellowstone
Altonah, Nr April-July35 36 40 67 45 52
June-July15 16.8 20 49 25 32
Whiterocks
Whiterocks, Nr April-July23 26 30 59 32 37
June-July10 12.4 16.6 50 18.4 24
Uinta
Neola, Nr April-July28 33 40 56 43 50
June-July14 18.3 26 52 29 36
Duchesne
Myton April-July124 135 155 51 180 200
June-July7 17.8 38 24 63 83
Randlett, Nr April-July122 134 155 44 180 215
June-July4 15.5 37 20 62 97


Lower Green Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
White
Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldier Summit, Nr April-July4.1 4.3 4.5 36 5 5.9
June-July0.2 0.43 0.63 23 1.1 2
Fish Ck
Scofield, Nr, Reservoir, Abv April-July13 14 16 62 17 19
June-July0.5 1.5 3.5 42 4.5 6.5
Price
Scofield Reservoir, Scofield, Nr April-July18.1 19 21 62 23 26
June-July0.5 1.4 3.4 33 5.4 8
Green
Green River, Ut April-July1230 1430 1600 57 1880 2120
June-July500 700 875 60 1150 1390
Huntington Ck
Electric Lake April-July6.4 7 7.5 66 8 9
June-July0.5 1.1 1.6 42 2.1 3.1
Power Plant, Blo April-July18.2 19.9 25 63 27 30
June-July5.2 6.9 12 57 14 17
Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Reservoir, Orangeville, Nr April-July25 29 36 71 40 43
June-July5.5 9.7 16.4 59 20 23
Ferron Ck
Ferron, Nr April-July17.8 19.6 22 63 24 26
June-July3.5 5.3 7.7 41 9.7 11.7
Muddy Ck
Emery, Nr April-July5.9 6.5 7.5 41 8 9
June-July2 2.6 3.6 33 4.1 5.1

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Green End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Green
Fontenelle Reservoir, Fontenelle, Nr 158.3 83 47 151.6 79 190.9 334.0
untitled Big Sandy
Big Sandy Reservoir, Nr Farson 17.9 60 47 18.8 63 29.7 38.3
Blacks Fork
Meeks Cabin 28.4 113 95 16.6 66 25.1 29.9
untitled Ef Smiths Fork
Stateline Reservoir, Robertson,nr 12.8 122 92 8.3 79 10.5 13.9
untitled Green
Flaming Gorge Reservoir 2769.2 89 74 3148.8 101 3103.0 3749.0
untitled Strawberry
Strawberry Reservoir, Soldier Springs 875.8 101 79 903.7 105 864.6 1105.9
Starvation Reservoir, Duchesne, Nr 152.2 99 92 153.0 99 153.9 165.3
untitled Rock Ck
Upper Stillwater Reservoir 18.4 123 59 21.4 143 15.0 31.4
untitled Lake Fork
Moon Lake Reservoir, Mtn Home, Nr 30.2 121 83 13.8 55 24.9 36.5
untitled Big Brush Ck
Red Fleet Reservoir, Vernal, Nr 15.6 68 61 17.1 75 22.8 25.7
untitled Price
Scofield Reservoir, Scofield, Nr 31.7 73 48 33.3 77 43.1 65.8
untitled Seeley Ck
Joes Vly Reservoir, Orangeville, Nr 37.4 76 60 37.6 77 49.0 62.5
untitled Huntington Ck
Electric Lake 15.6 69 49 18.0 80 22.6 31.5
untitled
TOTAL 4163.5 91 73 4541.8 100 4555.2 5689.6

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1991-2020 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Brenda Alcorn