Lower Colorado Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2018

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

	Forecast Period	90% Exceedance Volume	70% Exceedance Volume	50% Exceedance Volume	Percent Median	30% Exceedance Volume	10% Exceedance Volume
Salt
Roosevelt, Nr	January-May	43	62	78	25	113	149
	February-May	34	53	69	24	104	140
Tonto Ck
Roosevelt, Nr, Gun Ck, Abv	January-May	2.2	5.1	8.2	19.5	17.9	29
	February-May	1.4	4.3	7.4	21	17.1	28
Verde
Tangle Ck, Blo, Horseshoe Dam, Abv	January-May	50	61	78	50	116	184
	February-May	36	47	64	47	102	170

	Forecast Period	90% Exceedance Volume	70% Exceedance Volume	50% Exceedance Volume	Percent Median	30% Exceedance Volume	10% Exceedance Volume
Gila
Gila, Nr	January-May	13.2	14	16.6	30	23	28
	February-May	9.5	10.3	12.9	26	19	24
Virden, Nr, Blue Ck, Blo	January-May	16.9	18.1	22	29	30	42
	February-May	12.2	13.4	17.7	28	25	37
Solomon, Nr, Head Of Safford Vly	January-May	31	36	46	34	70	100
	February-May	21	26	36	29	60	90
San Carlos Res, Coolidge Dam, At	January-May	15.1	16	24	25	50	80
	February-May	7.1	8	15.9	19.6	42	72
San Francisco
Glenwood, Nr	January-May	4	4.4	6.9	33	12.1	15.2
	February-May	2.9	3.3	5.8	32	11	14.1
Clifton	January-May	7.9	10	15.2	25	27	43
	February-May	4.6	6.7	11.9	23	24	40

	Forecast Period	90% Exceedance Volume	70% Exceedance Volume	50% Exceedance Volume	Percent Median	30% Exceedance Volume	10% Exceedance Volume
Little Colorado
Lyman Lk, Abv, St. Johns, Nr	January-June	1.2	1.4	1.7	23	2.2	2.9
	February-June	1.1	1.3	1.5	23	2	2.7
Zuni
Black Rock Res, Abv	January-May	0	0.01	0.03	6.4	0.1	0.22
	February-May	0	0.01	0.03	7.9	0.1	0.22
Chevelon Ck
Winslow, Nr, Wildcat Cyn, Blo	January-May	0.08	0.48	1.5	10.5	2.5	6.3
	February-May	0.08	0.48	1.5	10.5	2.5	6.3

	EOM Contents	Percent EOM Average	Percent Usable Capacity	Last Year EOM	Last Year %Average	EOM Average	Usable Capacity
Salt
Roosevelt	938.4	104	57	819.6	91	901.4	1653.0
Horse Mesa	232.0	104	95	230.0	104	222.0	245.1
Mormon Flat	55.6	102	96	55.5	102	54.5	57.9
Stewart Mountain	64.2	103	92	68.5	110	62.2	69.8
Horseshoe	14.8	39	14	91.4	243	37.6	109.2
Bartlett	95.7	82	54	133.9	115	116.8	178.2
untitled
TOTAL	1400.8	100	61	1399.0	100	1394.6	2313.2


Bill Williams
Alamo	-9999.0	-99	-99	79.0	55	143.3	1045.0
Agua Fria
Lake Pleasant	689.5	107	79	728.0	113	641.6	869.9
Gila
San Carlos	67.8	18	8	139.6	38	366.8	875.0
Colorado
Lake Powell	13672.3	79	56	11359.3	66	17338.2	24322.0
Lake Mead	10636.2	52	41	10509.3	51	20452.4	26120.0
untitled
TOTAL	25065.9	65	48	22815.2	59	38798.9	52186.9

Range		Round to
0-1.99		0.01
2.0-19.9		0.1
20-199		1.0
200-999		5.0
1000+		3 significant digits

Lower Colorado Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2018

Lower Colorado Summary

Salt Basin Conditions

Gila Basin Conditions

Little Colorado Basin Conditions

Salt Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Gila Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Little Colorado Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Lower Colorado End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

Precipitation Maps

Definitions

Additional Information