Above average precipitation occured in February from northern Arizona extending to just south of the Mogollon Rim. Below average precipitation was observed over the southern third of Arizona. Snow continued to accumulate at the highest elevations through mid February with melt occurring during the last week of the month. Snowmelt combined with rainfall earlier in the month resulting in February streamflow volumes well above median for the third consecutive month. Runoff volumes for the February through May period are expected to range from near 120 to 300 percent of median.

March through May runoff volumes in the Salt, Verde, and Tonto River Basins are expected to range from near 110 to 120 percent of the median. Rainfall and snowmelt runoff during February contributed to monthly volumes between 300 to 450 percent of median. Snowpack that remains in the highest elevations of the Salt and Verde Basins ranges from 120 to 260 percent of average. The snowpack will contribute to the seasonal runoff volumes but areal coverage extends across a small fraction of the basin. Additional rainfall during the March through May period may contribute significantly to runoff volumes due to saturated conditions in this area.

March through May runoff volumes in the Gila River Basin are expected to range from near 120 to 250 percent of median. Monthly runoff volumes in February due to rainfall and snowmelt ranged from 200 to 350 percent of median. Snowpack in the San Francisco Basin high elevations ranges from 90 to 260 percent of average. Additional rainfall during the March through May period may contribute significantly to runoff volumes due to saturated conditions.

March through May runoff volumes in the Little Colorado Basin are expected to range from near 120 to 270 percent of median. Monthly runoff volumes in February due to rainfall and snowmelt ranged from near 370 to near 900 percent of median. Snowpack in the Little Colorado southern headwaters ranges between 140 and 160 percent of average. February precipitation amounts ranged from 130 to 180 percent of average. Additional rainfall during the March through May period may contribute significantly to runoff volumes due to saturated conditions.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).