The Green River Basin continues to have a wide distribution of water supply outlook conditions. Storm patterns favored the basin below Flaming Gorge helping to increase the forecast for those areas. Conditions upstream from Flaming Gorge continue to be below average.

Although the January percent of average monthly precipitation was not quite as high as December, it was still much above average across the Upper Colorado Basin. As a result, the February 1 snow water equivalent percent of average values rose 15% in the Upper Colorado mainstem and 30% in the Gunnison and Dolores basins from the January 1 values. Forecasts of the April through July runoff volumes rose 10% to 40% from those issued January 1.

Last month's streamflows were average to above average across the San Juan Basin. Some notables were Vallecito inflow of 125% and San Juan near Bluff with 135%. Last month's precipitation was much above average with 210%. The seasonal precipitation was above average with 130%. The snowpack across the entire basin as of February 1st increased from 130% to 155% of average. On February 1st, snowpack in the Upper San Juan Basin was particularly high with 170% of average while the Animas Basin was 150%. The storm totals from February 1st through the 4th was factored into the streamflow forecast. Northwest flow will continue across the San Juan Basin into early next week with most of the moisture forecast to stay north. The streamflow forecast was increased for all of the forecast points this month due to the increase in snowpack over the entire San Juan Basin.

January precipitation was above average at 115%. This brings the seasonal precipitation to near average conditions throughout many basins. However, the snowpack remains below average at 80% basin wide. The below average soil moisture states within the model continue to decrease objective guidance values. While NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicates the potential for wetter than normal conditions over the next 30 days, shorter term weather models do not indicate significant precipitation in the Upper Green River Basin over the next 10 days. This influenced the decrease in the coordinated forecast for many points. Like December, monthly inflow to Flaming Gorge was near 50% of average.

Monthly precipitation for January was 145% of average in the Yampa River basin. Snowpack increased from 85% of basin average on January 1, to 110% on February 1. The Elk and Little Snake drainages show the best conditions with some stations near their seasonal maximum. Due to these improved conditions, forecasts increased throughout the Yampa and White Basins.

January precipitation was 165 % of average. The snowpack, which had high variability at the end of December, has increase to 120% of average as of February 1. All stations within the Uinta Basin have average to above average conditions. As a result, forecasts increased throughout the basin.

Similar to the Yampa and Duchesne, January precipitation has brought the snow pack from below average to above average conditions in the Lower Green. Basin wide, snow pack is 120% of average as of February 1. As one would expect, forecasts for the Eastern side of the Wasatch Plateau increased to a basin median of 105%.

It's worth noting that monthly precipitation reported by lower elevation gages in the San Rafael Swell region was below average for January. However, this area does not normally contribute substantial snow melt volume to forecast points within the Lower Green Basin.

January was another wet month in the Upper Colorado mainstem with 165% of the basin average precipitation. This brought the seasonal precipitation to 130% of average and the snow water equivalent to 120% of average as of February 1st. However, the snowpack is not uniform across the basin. The Roaring Fork and Plateau Creek basins represent the high end of the spectrum with close to 150% of average snow water equivalent, while the basins above Kremmling generally have between 100% and 115% of average snow water equivalent. Because of the great gains in the snowpack all forecasts increased from last month, with the Roaring Fork and Plateau Creek points changing the most. The April through July streamflow forecasts now range between 100% and 130% of average.

Above average precipitation continued in the Gunnison Basin for the month of January with the basin receiving 215% of the monthly average. The basin is now at 155% of the seasonal average as of February 1st. All SNOTEL gages in the basin are now above 70% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack accumulation. Three SNOTELs, Overland Res. (127%), Park Cone (111%), and Columbine Pass (111%), have already accumulated over 100% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack. Even though precipitation was above normal for January, streamflow remains around average since most precipitation fell as snow. April through July volume forecasts have increased because of the above average snow fall. Volume forecasts now range from 131% of average at Taylor Park Reservoir to 152% of average at Paonia Reservoir.

Monthly precipitation in the Dolores Basin for January was above normal. The precipitation total was not as impressive as December but still much above average at 155% of the monthly average. Seasonal precipitation is now at 125% as of February 1st. All SNOTEL gages in the Dolores are above 80% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack accumulation. Scotch Creek (105%) and Lizard Head Pass (105%) are already above 100% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack accumulation. Even though precipitation was above normal for January, streamflow remains around average since most precipitation fell as snow. April through July volume forecasts have increased because of the above average snow fall. Volume forecasts now range from 136% of average on the San Miguel River at Placerville to 159% of average on the Dolores River at Cisco.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).