Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, January 1, 2018

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by B.Bernard, Patrick Kormos
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Great Basin Summary






*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Bear Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Weber Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Six Creeks Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Utah Lake Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Bear Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Bear
Utah April-July62 90 106 95 119 144
Woodruff Narrows Rsvr, Abv April-July50 81 103 85 117 153
Montpelier, Nr, Stewart Dam, Blo * April-July43 62 86 47 181 260
Smiths Fork
Border, Nr April-July33 50 74 83 99 113
Logan
Logan, Nr, State Dam, Abv April-July72 87 111 100 129 151
Blacksmith Fork
Hyrum, Nr, Upnl Dam, Abv April-July25 31 36 84 42 60
Little Bear
Paradise April-July12.5 18.3 27 57 40 58

*Regulated Forecast, i.e. Observed flow uncorrected for upstream diversion.

Weber Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Weber
Oakley, Nr April-July46 66 88 75 106 133
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr April-July38 60 84 64 110 149
Coalville, Nr April-July37 59 85 63 111 154
Chalk Ck
Coalville April-July10.8 17.4 24 59 34 49
Weber
Echo Res, Echo, At April-July46 77 108 63 144 205
Lost Ck
Lost Ck Res, Croydon, Nr April-July3.4 6 8.1 60 9.8 13.4
East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Res, Morgan, Nr April-July9 12.2 15.6 58 23 29
Weber
Gateway April-July83 129 189 58 280 365
Sf Ogden
Huntsville, Nr April-July18.8 31 43 77 49 71
Ogden
Pineview Res, Ogden, Nr April-July35 48 74 65 121 144


Six Creeks Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Little Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July20 23 26 68 31 38
Big Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July12.2 17.7 23 64 28 38
Mill Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July1.9 2.5 3.8 59 4.4 5.9
Dell Fk
Little Dell Res April-July1 2.2 3.3 60 4.8 5.7
Lambs Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July1.1 1.6 2.6 49 3.7 5.2
Parleys Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July3 4.6 7.9 56 10.9 14.3
Emigration Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July0.46 0.9 1.5 37 2.7 4.2
Red Butte Ck
Ft Douglas, At, Salt Lake City, Nr April-July0.39 0.49 0.62 33 1.4 1.6
City Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July2.5 3.3 4.3 56 6.5 7.9
S Willow Ck
Grantsville, Nr April-July1 1.3 1.9 60 2.5 3.1


Utah Lake Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Spanish Fork
Castilla, Nr April-July16.7 23 29 42 36 49
Provo
Woodland, Nr April-July45 66 81 81 99 119
Hailstone, Nr April-July51 70 89 81 108 130
Deer Ck Res April-July50 74 94 74 120 155
American Fork
American Fork, Nr, Up Pwrplnt, Abv April-July7 10.3 14 45 17.2 29
West Canyon Ck
Cedar Fort, Nr April-July0.28 0.44 0.75 43 1.2 1.8
Salt Ck
Nephi Powerplant Div, Blo April-July1.3 2.6 4 48 4.5 9.2
Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr April-July91 139 178 55 240 325

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Great Basin End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Bear
Woodruff Narrows Res, Woodruff, Nr 45.9 159 82 46.6 161 28.9 55.8
untitled Bear River
Bear Lake, Nr Lifton 1154.5 165 89 578.2 83 698.8 1302.0
untitled Little Bear
Hyrum Reservoir 9.9 98 65 9.6 95 10.1 15.3
untitled Weber
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr 51.0 146 92 28.2 81 34.8 55.2
Echo Res, Echo, At 47.3 107 64 25.8 58 44.3 73.9
untitled Lost Ck
Lost Ck Res, Croydon, Nr 18.1 166 80 14.6 134 10.9 22.5
untitled East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Res, Morgan, Nr 38.5 116 78 23.5 71 33.3 49.5
untitled Sf Ogden
Causey Res 4.8 154 68 4.2 136 3.1 7.1
untitled Ogden
Pineview Res, Ogden, Nr 67.7 129 61 67.5 128 52.5 110.1
untitled Jordanelle Dam
259.5 106 81 188.2 77 245.9 320.3
untitled Provo
Deer Ck Res 133.8 127 89 122.1 116 105.5 149.7
untitled Dell Fk
Little Dell Res -9999.0 -99 -99 12.6 -99 -9999.0 20.5
untitled Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr 556.4 77 64 332.6 46 720.9 870.9
untitled
TOTAL 2387.4 120 79 1441.0 72 1988.9 3032.3

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: B.Bernard, Patrick Kormos