Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, January 1, 2021

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Brent.Bernard, Patrick Kormos
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Great Basin Summary






*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Bear Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Weber Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Six Creeks Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Utah Lake Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Bear Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Bear
Utah April-July39 52 70 63 89 114
Woodruff Narrows Rsvr, Abv April-July24 44 58 48 75 119
Montpelier, Nr, Stewart Dam, Blo * April-July37 58 85 47 114 172
Smiths Fork
Border, Nr April-July44 55 71 80 88 104
Logan
Logan, Nr, State Dam, Abv April-July43 55 72 65 100 117
Blacksmith Fork
Hyrum, Nr, Upnl Dam, Abv April-July16.5 19.6 24 56 28 45
Little Bear
Paradise April-July7 13 19 40 24 38

*Regulated Forecast, i.e. Observed flow uncorrected for upstream diversion.

Weber Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Weber
Oakley, Nr April-July35 49 67 57 88 116
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr April-July26 41 61 46 86 126
Coalville, Nr April-July24 38 60 45 86 129
Chalk Ck
Coalville April-July6.8 8.9 17.3 42 21 34
Weber
Echo Reservoir, Echo, At April-July28 47 72 42 104 169
Lost Ck
Lost Ck Reservoir, Croyden, Nr April-July2.2 3.4 6 45 6.8 10.5
East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Reservoir, Morgan, Nr April-July7.6 9.5 12.9 48 19.1 25
Weber
Gateway April-July51 75 130 40 196 290
Sf Ogden
Huntsville, Nr April-July10.5 16.7 31 55 37 61
Ogden
Pineview Reservoir, Ogden, Nr April-July16.8 27 58 51 86 121


Six Creeks Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Little Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July14.6 19.4 23 61 29 36
Big Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July11.7 16.2 21 58 29 37
Mill Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July1.6 2.1 2.8 44 3.9 5.3
Dell Fk
Little Dell Reservoir April-July0.7 1.4 2.4 44 3.7 5
Lambs Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July1 1.5 2.1 40 3 4.7
Parleys Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July2.4 3.5 5.8 41 8.5 12
Red Butte Ck
Ft Douglas, At, Salt Lake City, Nr April-July0.41 0.52 0.65 34 1.3 1.7
City Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July1.7 2.3 3.1 40 4.2 5.2
S Willow Ck
Grantsville, Nr April-July1.1 1.3 1.4 46 2.3 2.8


Utah Lake Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Spanish Fork
Castilla, Nr April-July15.9 22 29 42 37 55
Provo
Woodland, Nr April-July33 49 67 67 82 101
Hailstone, Nr April-July35 52 71 65 88 110
Deer Ck Reservoir April-July34 54 76 60 98 131
American Fork
American Fork, Nr, Up Pwrplnt, Abv April-July7 9.9 14.6 47 17 27
West Canyon Ck
Cedar Fort, Nr April-July0.23 0.37 0.79 45 0.89 1.9
Salt Ck
Nephi Powerplant Div, Blo April-July1.6 3.4 4.5 54 5.9 12.7
Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr April-July71 104 147 45 225 300

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Great Basin End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Bear
Woodruff Narrows Reservoir, Woodruff, Nr 25.2 87 45 47.8 165 28.9 55.8
untitled Bear River
Bear Lake, Nr Lifton 903.6 129 69 1028.6 147 698.8 1302.0
untitled Little Bear
Hyrum Reservoir 9.7 96 64 9.8 97 10.1 15.3
untitled Weber
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr 29.9 86 54 46.9 135 34.8 55.2
Echo Reservoir, Echo, At 21.2 48 29 48.9 111 44.3 73.9
untitled Lost Ck
Lost Ck Reservoir, Croyden, Nr 14.5 133 64 17.0 156 10.9 22.5
untitled East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Reservoir, Morgan, Nr 30.0 90 61 39.7 119 33.3 49.5
untitled Sf Ogden
Causey Reservoir 3.6 114 50 5.0 161 3.1 7.1
untitled Ogden
Pineview Res, Ogden, Nr 50.1 95 45 68.4 130 52.5 110.1
untitled Provo
Jordanelle Reservoir 220.6 90 69 267.3 109 245.9 320.3
Deer Ck Reservoir 107.3 102 72 137.7 130 105.5 149.7
untitled Dell Fk
Little Dell Reservoir 11.3 -99 55 15.4 -99 -9999.0 20.5
untitled Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr 616.6 86 71 780.8 108 720.9 870.9
untitled
TOTAL 2032.3 102 67 2498.0 126 1988.9 3052.8

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1981-2010 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Brent.Bernard, Patrick Kormos