New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year.
Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, January 1, 2022

Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, January 1, 2022

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Patrick Kormos
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Great Basin Summary






*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Bear Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Weber Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Six Creeks Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Utah Lake Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Bear Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Bear
Utah April-July81 90 125 115 143 170
Woodruff Narrows Rsvr, Abv April-July65 75 119 110 144 196
Montpelier, Nr, Stewart Dam, Blo * April-July63 89 126 78 172 255
Smiths Fork
Border, Nr April-July51 63 85 97 101 113
Logan
Logan, Nr, State Dam, Abv April-July55 69 90 85 111 131
Blacksmith Fork
Hyrum, Nr, Upnl Dam, Abv April-July18.3 24 37 100 46 65
Little Bear
Paradise April-July14.2 21 33 85 51 67

*Regulated Forecast, i.e. Observed flow uncorrected for upstream diversion.

Weber Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Weber
Oakley, Nr April-July76 83 122 110 143 174
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr April-July71 82 130 113 159 205
Coalville, Nr April-July68 81 132 111 164 215
Chalk Ck
Coalville April-July18 25 41 117 56 74
Weber
Echo Reservoir, Echo, At April-July84 100 176 116 215 300
Lost Ck
Lost Ck Reservoir, Croyden, Nr April-July3.6 6.2 12 94 12.4 17.2
East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Reservoir, Morgan, Nr April-July10.1 15.5 25 109 33 43
Weber
Gateway April-July119 170 290 105 400 510
Sf Ogden
Huntsville, Nr April-July25 34 57 110 61 91
Ogden
Pineview Reservoir, Ogden, Nr April-July36 60 101 93 139 190


Six Creeks Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Little Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July25 31 38 112 44 50
Big Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July22 27 37 109 44 53
Mill Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July3.6 4.7 6.2 117 7.7 9.3
Dell Fk
Little Dell Reservoir April-July2.1 3.4 5.3 120 6.7 7.9
Lambs Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July2.4 3.6 5.5 128 6.9 9.1
Parleys Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July5.6 8.9 14.2 123 19 23
Red Butte Ck
Ft Douglas, At, Salt Lake City, Nr April-July0.69 1.2 1.7 108 2.2 2.7
City Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July4.1 4.9 6.3 98 7.9 9.2
S Willow Ck
Grantsville, Nr April-July1.5 1.8 2.3 77 2.9 3.4


Utah Lake Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Spanish Fork
Castilla, Nr April-July24 30 51 94 72 112
Provo
Woodland, Nr April-July68 82 110 115 128 150
Hailstone, Nr April-July73 89 120 113 143 167
Deer Ck Reservoir April-July79 96 142 119 172 220
American Fork
American Fork, Nr, Up Pwrplnt, Abv April-July14.9 21 27 108 35 46
West Canyon Ck
Cedar Fort, Nr April-July0.23 0.58 1.3 72 1.5 2.5
Salt Ck
Nephi Powerplant Div, Blo April-July3.2 4.8 7.2 86 11.1 20
Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr April-July145 193 270 129 400 530

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Great Basin End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Bear
Woodruff Narrows Reservoir, Woodruff, Nr 11.9 41 21 25.2 87 28.9 55.8
untitled Bear River
Bear Lake, Nr Lifton 655.9 94 50 903.6 129 698.8 1302.0
untitled Little Bear
Hyrum Reservoir 8.6 86 57 9.7 96 10.1 15.3
untitled Weber
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr 24.4 71 44 29.9 87 34.5 55.2
Echo Reservoir, Echo, At 20.1 52 27 21.2 55 38.8 73.9
untitled Lost Ck
Lost Ck Reservoir, Croyden, Nr 9.4 80 42 14.5 122 11.8 22.5
untitled East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Reservoir, Morgan, Nr 25.3 78 51 30.0 93 32.2 49.5
untitled Sf Ogden
Causey Reservoir 4.0 128 57 3.6 114 3.1 7.1
untitled Ogden
Pineview Res, Ogden, Nr 23.4 45 21 50.1 95 52.5 110.1
untitled Provo
Jordanelle Reservoir 161.9 74 51 220.6 101 219.3 320.3
Deer Ck Reservoir 108.7 100 73 107.3 98 109.1 149.7
untitled Dell Fk
Little Dell Reservoir 9.9 -99 48 11.3 -99 -9999.0 20.5
untitled Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr 489.4 68 56 616.6 86 720.9 870.9
untitled
TOTAL 1543.0 79 51 2032.2 104 1960.0 3052.8

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1991-2020 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Patrick Kormos