New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year.
Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022

Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Patrick Kormos
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Great Basin Summary






*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Bear Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Weber Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Six Creeks Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Utah Lake Basin Conditions




Snow Water Equivalent in Percent of Median.
* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.


Bear Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Bear
Utah April-July84 93 114 105 130 156
Woodruff Narrows Rsvr, Abv April-July67 77 102 94 123 167
Montpelier, Nr, Stewart Dam, Blo * April-July69 83 97 60 130 210
Smiths Fork
Border, Nr April-July57 64 72 82 83 105
Logan
Logan, Nr, State Dam, Abv April-July59 69 84 79 92 122
Blacksmith Fork
Hyrum, Nr, Upnl Dam, Abv April-July18.8 23 29 78 36 49
Little Bear
Paradise April-July15.1 19.3 23 59 39 50

*Regulated Forecast, i.e. Observed flow uncorrected for upstream diversion.

Weber Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Weber
Oakley, Nr April-July80 83 109 98 129 160
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr April-July75 79 110 96 136 179
Coalville, Nr April-July73 78 109 92 137 183
Chalk Ck
Coalville April-July18.2 25 30 86 42 60
Weber
Echo Reservoir, Echo, At April-July90 101 137 90 176 240
Lost Ck
Lost Ck Reservoir, Croyden, Nr April-July4.8 7.6 9 70 10.6 14.7
East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Reservoir, Morgan, Nr April-July11.5 15.5 18.7 81 28 32
Weber
Gateway April-July128 175 245 89 290 390
Sf Ogden
Huntsville, Nr April-July25 34 41 79 54 72
Ogden
Pineview Reservoir, Ogden, Nr April-July38 54 69 63 107 140


Six Creeks Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Little Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July27 30 34 100 38 46
Big Cottonwood Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July23 27 33 97 36 46
Mill Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July3.6 4.7 5.5 106 6.6 7.7
Dell Fk
Little Dell Reservoir April-July2.5 3.6 4.2 95 5.7 6.5
Lambs Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July2.7 3.4 4.6 107 6.1 7.5
Parleys Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July6.3 8.9 11.3 98 15.7 18.4
Red Butte Ck
Ft Douglas, At, Salt Lake City, Nr April-July0.78 1.1 1.5 96 1.9 2.1
City Ck
Salt Lake City, Nr April-July3.7 4.7 5.2 80 6.6 7.4
S Willow Ck
Grantsville, Nr April-July1.3 1.5 1.9 65 2.2 2.9


Utah Lake Specific Site Forecasts (kaf)

Click site name for graph.
Forecast
Period		90%
Exceedance
Volume		70%
Exceedance
Volume		50%
Exceedance
Volume		Percent
Average		30%
Exceedance
Volume		10%
Exceedance
Volume
Spanish Fork
Castilla, Nr April-July23 28 38 70 49 65
Provo
Woodland, Nr April-July73 81 93 97 116 137
Hailstone, Nr April-July77 86 99 93 123 148
Deer Ck Reservoir April-July83 97 113 95 138 182
American Fork
American Fork, Nr, Up Pwrplnt, Abv April-July15.4 18.4 21 84 27 35
West Canyon Ck
Cedar Fort, Nr April-July0.19 0.34 0.58 33 0.71 1.8
Salt Ck
Nephi Powerplant Div, Blo April-July2.9 4.1 5.5 71 6.7 11.3
Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr April-July146 181 220 102 280 375

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).

Great Basin End of Month Reservoir Contents (kaf)

EOM
Contents		Percent
EOM
Average		Percent
Usable
Capacity		Last Year
EOM		Last Year
%Average		EOM
Average		Usable
Capacity
untitled Bear
Woodruff Narrows Reservoir, Woodruff, Nr 13.5 47 24 25.1 87 28.9 55.8
untitled Bear River
Bear Lake, Nr Lifton 665.1 94 51 914.5 130 703.9 1302.0
untitled Little Bear
Hyrum Reservoir 10.7 104 70 10.1 98 10.3 15.3
untitled Weber
Rockport Res, Wanship, Nr 29.2 81 53 31.6 88 36.1 55.2
Echo Reservoir, Echo, At 23.5 55 32 24.4 57 42.6 73.9
untitled Lost Ck
Lost Ck Reservoir, Croyden, Nr 9.7 80 43 14.6 121 12.0 22.5
untitled East Canyon Ck
East Canyon Reservoir, Morgan, Nr 26.6 80 54 30.9 93 33.3 49.5
untitled Sf Ogden
Causey Reservoir 4.3 109 61 3.9 99 4.0 7.1
untitled Ogden
Pineview Res, Ogden, Nr 27.9 52 25 52.7 99 53.4 110.1
untitled Provo
Jordanelle Reservoir 159.8 73 50 216.8 100 217.6 320.3
Deer Ck Reservoir 116.3 102 78 114.3 100 114.4 149.7
untitled Dell Fk
Little Dell Reservoir 9.4 -99 46 10.9 -99 -9999.0 20.5
untitled Jordan
Utah Lake, Provo, Nr 508.4 68 58 642.8 85 753.0 870.9
untitled
TOTAL 1595.1 79 53 2081.7 104 2009.4 3052.8

Precipitation Maps




Definitions

10% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 10% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Maximum Forecast".

50% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 50% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Most Probable Forecast".

90% exceedance forecast: Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, i.e current snowpack, soil moisture and streamflow, the volume that has a 90% chance of being exceeded. Previously referred to as "Reasonable Minimum Forecast".

Acre-Foot (af): The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). See kaf below.

Average: The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. Values from 1991-2020 are used for this publication.

Categories: Much Above Average=Greater than 130%, Above Average=111-130%, Near Average=90-110%, Below Average=70-89%, Much Below Average=Less than 70%.

CBRFC: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Forecast Period: The period from April 1 through July 31, unless otherwise noted.

kaf: Thousand Acre-Feet. See Acre-Foot above.

Inflow: The volume of water that flows into a reservoir or lake.

Median: The middle value of an ordered set of values. Half of the values are higher and half of the values are lower. When the set contains an even number of values the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration.

NWS: National Weather Service.

Rounding Conventions:
RangeRound to
0-1.990.01
2.0-19.90.1
20-1991.0
200-9995.0
1000+3 significant digits


Streamflow: The volume of water that flows past a specific stream site.

Water Year: The 12-month period, October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the year ending September 30, 2008, is called the "2008 water year."


Additional Information

Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and monthly forecasts become more accurate. For more information on the tools we use, consult Water Supply Forecasting Tools.

Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting.

The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. It represents a coordinated effort between the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey and local water district managers.

Note: Data used in this report are provisional and are subject to revision.

For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact:

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2242 W North Temple
Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5130
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov


Hydrologist: Patrick Kormos