Upper Colorado Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2008

Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us.
Prepared by Brenda Alcorn, John Lhotak
NOAA, National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Contents

Upper Colorado Summary

Although the January percent of average monthly precipitation was not quite as high as December, it was still much above average across the Upper Colorado Basin. As a result, the February 1 snow water equivalent percent of average values rose 15% in the Upper Colorado mainstem and 30% in the Gunnison and Dolores basins from the January 1 values. Forecasts of the April through July runoff volumes rose 10% to 40% from those issued January 1.



*Median of forecasts within each basin.


Upper Colorado Mainstem Basin Conditions

January was another wet month in the Upper Colorado mainstem with 165% of the basin average precipitation. This brought the seasonal precipitation to 130% of average and the snow water equivalent to 120% of average as of February 1st. However, the snowpack is not uniform across the basin. The Roaring Fork and Plateau Creek basins represent the high end of the spectrum with close to 150% of average snow water equivalent, while the basins above Kremmling generally have between 100% and 115% of average snow water equivalent. Because of the great gains in the snowpack all forecasts increased from last month, with the Roaring Fork and Plateau Creek points changing the most. The April through July streamflow forecasts now range between 100% and 130% of average.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Gunnison Basin Conditions

Above average precipitation continued in the Gunnison Basin for the month of January with the basin receiving 215% of the monthly average. The basin is now at 155% of the seasonal average as of February 1st. All SNOTEL gages in the basin are now above 70% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack accumulation. Three SNOTELs, Overland Res. (127%), Park Cone (111%), and Columbine Pass (111%), have already accumulated over 100% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack. Even though precipitation was above normal for January, streamflow remains around average since most precipitation fell as snow. April through July volume forecasts have increased because of the above average snow fall. Volume forecasts now range from 131% of average at Taylor Park Reservoir to 152% of average at Paonia Reservoir.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.

Dolores Basin Conditions

Monthly precipitation in the Dolores Basin for January was above normal. The precipitation total was not as impressive as December but still much above average at 155% of the monthly average. Seasonal precipitation is now at 125% as of February 1st. All SNOTEL gages in the Dolores are above 80% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack accumulation. Scotch Creek (105%) and Lizard Head Pass (105%) are already above 100% of their average seasonal maximum snowpack accumulation. Even though precipitation was above normal for January, streamflow remains around average since most precipitation fell as snow. April through July volume forecasts have increased because of the above average snow fall. Volume forecasts now range from 136% of average on the San Miguel River at Placerville to 159% of average on the Dolores River at Cisco.



* Percent usable capacity, not percent average contents.
Click for multi-month Graph.







Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).


Precipitation Maps








Hydrologist: Brenda Alcorn, John Lhotak