Note: This publication is currently undergoing major revisions. The current publication will be replaced with a new publication based on stakeholder requirements and scientific advances. We expect to begin sharing details on this soon. If you have input on content, format, or publication frequency at any time, please contact us at cbrfc.webmasters@noaa.gov.Great Basin Water Supply Outlook, March 1, 2010
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through February precipitation
was near 67 percent of average in the upper Bear Basin as a whole.
February precipitation was 56 percent of average.
Streamflow:
Almost all gages in the Bear continued to be ice affected until late February. The Logan River above State Dam however remained ice free and
recorded 81 percent of average.
Snowpack:
March 1st snow water equivalent was 60 percent of average for the Bear Basin as a whole.
Upper Bear River Basin Snow Plot.
Bear River Below Woodruff Narrows Reservoir
Snow Plot.
Bear River Basin Snow Plot.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation. However meteorological persistence suggest continued below average conditions.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average and declining seasonal precipitation and below average March 1st snow water equivalent values,
the April through July streamflow volume forecasts are now much below average.
These forecasts now
range between 15 and 58 percent of average with a median value of 48 percent of average.
The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:
Precipitation:
Seasonal October through February precipitation was near 65 percent of
average in the Weber Basin.
January precipitation was 49 percent of average.
Streamflow:
Almost all gages in the upper Weber remained ice affected during February. Rockport Reservoir inflow however remained ice free and
recorded 67 percent of average.
Snowpack:
March 1st snow water equivalent was near 64 percent of average in the basin as a whole.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
Due to much below average seasonal precipitation and much below average March 1st snow water equivalent values,
the April through July streamflow volume forecasts were lowered to much below average.
These forecasts now range
between 28 and 56 percent of average with a median value of 44 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average March 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow volume forecasts declined to much below average.
These forecasts now range between 44 and 68 percent of average
with a median value of 49 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts:
Climate forecasts were not a factored into the northern Utah forecasts because there is not a strong correlation between
El Nino conditions and winter precipitation here.
Forecast Summary:
Due to below average March 1st snow water equivalent values the April through July streamflow volume forecasts declined to much below average at this time.
These forecasts now range between
43 and 63 percent of average with a median value of 50 percent of average.
Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).